Nothing Fishy About An MLB Pick On Marlins To Beat Struggling D-Backs

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, May 5, 2016 5:51 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 5, 2016 5:51 PM GMT

Last night, the Marlins prevailed (4-3) after dumping Arizona (7-4) in the series opener, along with the benefit of a positive starting pitcher mismatch in this MLB betting match-up.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
In a battle of 2 teams headed opposite directions, I will back the Miami Marlins tonight, as they conclude their 3-game early week set against the struggling Arizona D’Backs. Last night, the Marlins prevailed (4-3) after dumping Arizona (7-4) in the series opener. Along with the benefit of a positive starting pitcher mismatch, I feel confidence I have the right SIDE with Miami starter, Conley, against Arizona’s choice, Ray.

 

Arizona enters on slides of 1-7 and a 5 game losing streak in which they have averaged just 2.6 RPG with a .232 BA. The Miami Marlins’ marks certainly compare favorably to that. Miami is riding the wave of a 9-1 recent record. In the last 6 games, the Marlins have averaged 5.7 RPG, batting .308 with 12 HRs. Could it be the addition of Barry Bonds as their hitting coach?  

Battle On The Mound
On the mound, we find the edge accruing to the home-standing Marlins as well. Arizona’s visiting starter, Ray, is 1-1 for the season with 4.97 ERA.  Ray looked like the real deal, when in his first 3 starts, he pitched to a 1.96 ERA.  Since that time, however, in his 2 most recent starts, Ray has a 12.86 ERA. Ray was also lit up in his only start against the Marlins, in which he lasted just 4 2/3 IP, allowing 5 runs in a 5-3 loss. His mound opponent tonight is Conley with a 3.67 ERA for the year.

The 25-year old lefthander comes off his best start in his career. After throwing no more than 95 pitches, Conley was pulled after 7 2/3 IP of his previous start, despite the fact he allowed no hits at Milwaukee in an eventual 6-3 win for Miami. The 116 pitches were well above his previous high, which was the deciding factor in his Manager, Mattingly, deciding to pull the plug.

 

Conclusions
Despite the fact the Marlins won by a single run last night, we comfortably back them on the run line today.  Fourteen of 17 Arizona losses, including 4 of 5 on the road have come by 2 or more runs.  With Miami bashing the cover off the ball and Arizona struggling to put up runs, the run line option at a huge underdog price appears to be a prudent option.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Miami Marlins tonight.  

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Free MLB Pick: Miami Marlins -133
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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