Note Comerica's Total Trends when Betting Blue Jays vs. Tigers

Darin Zank

Sunday, July 5, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 5, 2015 1:35 PM UTC

Detroit didn't seem to miss Miguel Cabrera Saturday, but his absence must be considered when handicapping Sunday's series finale between the Tigers and Blue Jays at Comerica.

Jays-Tigers Sunday Betting Odds
In early betting action the best line we could find on Toronto and Marco Estrada was the -108 offered at Heritage, while Detroit and Justin Verlander were getting +101 at Pinnacle. And most of the market was listing a total of nine runs on today's game.


The Situation
Detroit took the opener of this series Friday night 8-6, then Saturday, in its first game without injured slugger Miggy Cabrera, rapped out 13 hits, at least one by every starter in the lineup, on its way to an 8-3 victory.

So the Tigers have won two in a row overall, while Toronto has lost five of its last six.

Detroit also, amazingly, has played 15 OVERS in a row.

At 42-41 the Blue Jays are three games out in the AL East, while at 41-39 the Tigers are five games out in the AL Central. And both teams are right in the mix in the AL wild-card race.


Sunday's Starters
Verlander (0-1, 5.09) is one-for-three on quality starts since rejoining the team three weeks ago. Tuesday he limited Pittsburgh to two earned runs through six innings, although just before that he got nicked for six runs in 6 2/3 innings against the Yankees. So through his first three starts he's allowed 10 earned runs and 19 hits through 17 2/3 innings, with seven strikeouts and eight walks. Detroit is 0-3 in Verlander's starts, with the OVERS going 3-0.

Verlander started once against Toronto last season, giving up five earned runs through seven innings of a 7-3 Tigers loss.

Estrada (5-4, 3.58) is five-for-11 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Tuesday Estrada only went 2 1/3 innings against Boston, giving up four runs (two earned), walking four and giving up a couple of dingers. But in his two starts previous to that he held the Orioles and Rays to one run and just three hits, with 16 strikeouts, through 15 2/3 innings. For the season Estrada has allowed fewer hits, 60, than innings pitched, 75, walked 27 and struck out 64. Toronto is 5-6 in Estrada's starts, with the OVERS going 6-5.

This will be Estrada's first-ever start against the Tigers, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.


Sunday's Batting Splits
Detroit ranks second in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .334 team on-base percentage, while Toronto ranks 11th against righties with a .322 OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Note that games going OVER the MLB Odds run totals are now 23-19 in games played at Comerica Park this season, which are averaging 9.1 runs per.


Jays-Tigers Sunday Free Picks
We'll give Estrada a short edge in the pitching match-up, and we'll call the bats a wash, with Miggy out. So we like Toronto today for our money line MLB pick. Also, Detroit is trending hard towards the OVERS at the moment, and we could easily see today's game getting to 6-5.

MLB Picks: Blue Jays -108 at Heritage and OVER nine runs (+112) at 5Dimes

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