Not So Fast! Avoid the Sportsbooks Traps with Today's Over/Under MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant has gone 15-4 at SBR since 6/24. He shares his two top totals selections on Tuesday’s card. Join us in reading this betting preview article where he focuses on the games between the Cubs/Mets and Red Sox/Blue Jays.

Mets (Niese) vs. Cubs (Hendricks) 7:10 PM ET
The Mets continue to struggle offensively this season. They’re averaging only 3.6 runs per game and have a team batting average of just .235 in 2015. The Mets have gone 6-1 under the total in their previous seven, and 11-2 under in the last thirteen games. They’ve scored 2 runs or less in 6 of the last seven, and 9 of their last 11 games. The Mets pitching staff has also allowed 2 runs or less in each of the previous four games. After an extremely rough start to the season, the Mets starter Jonathan Niese seems to be settling down a bit in recent starts. Niese has posted a solid 3.15 ERA in his last three starts.

The Cubs have gone 7-1-1 under the total during their previous nine games. They’ve scored 2 runs or less in each of their last six games. Kyle Hendricks has struggled on the mound this season, but he was very impressive in his only career start versus the Mets which came last season. This looks like an opportune time for Hendricks to right the ship considering Tuesday’s opponent is hitting a dismal .183 as a team over their last seven games.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and one of my MLB picks for Tuesday will be indicative of that prediction. Based on the prices at all the major sportsbooks, Pinnacle provides the best value on an under wager.

MLB Picks: Cubs and Mets under 7.0 (+104) at Pinnacle.

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If you're looking for more MLB action, you can't miss our MLB picks of the day!

Red Sox (Rodriguez) vs. Blue Jays (Estrada) 7:07 PM ET
Southpaw pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox enters today in very shaky form during his last three starts, posting a large 9.82 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and all three games went over the total. His one start versus Toronto this season was a nightmare. In that outing, Rodriguez allowed 9 earned runs on 8 hits while walking 2 in 4 2/3 innings.

Toronto has really dominated southpaw starting pitchers this season. They’ve averaged 6.6 runs per game and hit a robust .299 as a team versus lefty starters. This is also a Blue Jays team which average 5.6 runs per game at home, and possesses an outstanding .476 slugging percentage in that role. They’ve also hit 57 home runs in 41 games at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Marco Estrada struggled in his only appearance versus Boston this season. In that outing he allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 3 in 5.0 innings.

At first glance this total looked to be way too high. However, after further examination, I clearly see the sportsbooks thinking when setting this total, and they’ve certainly made it enticing to consider an under bet. My experience has led me to believe it’s never that easy, and this game today will be further evidence of exactly that. Pinnacle has the best price on the MLB odds at the time of this writing regarding making a wager to go over the total.

MLB Picks: Red Sox and Blue Jays over 9.0 (+102) at Pinnacle.

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