Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
Runs could be hard to come by in a National League West matchup late Tuesday night when southpaw Wade Miley and the Arizona Diamondbacks (59-84, 30-41 away) pay a visit to right-hander Yusmeiro Petit and the San Francisco Giants (78-65, 38-33 home) in the first game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 10:15 ET.
The posted total at Bet365 is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.
Still Fighting for Division Title
The Giants return home after taking two out of three from the Detroit Tigers to salvage a 3-3 road trip that began with two losses in three games in Colorado. That leaves San Francisco 3½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, but those two teams have a big three-game series coming up this weekend here at AT&T Park.
The Diamondbacks did the Giants no favors by getting swept three games by those Dodgers in Los Angeles this past weekend, and now Arizona has “caught” the Colorado Rockies for the worst MLB picks in the National League, leading Colorado by just one-half game for the league’s worst record. The Snakes have gone 2-5 on their road trip so far after splitting four games in San Diego vs. the Padres.
”Perfect Game” in Relief
The Giants grew tired of former two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum trying to re-discover his form from his glory days, so they demoted him to the bullpen and replaced him with Petit, who had made some spot starts here and there but had done his best work in the bullpen. In fact, Petit had retired 38 consecutive batters he had faced in relief before his latest insertion in the rotation, and he extended it to a Major League record 46 batters in that start!
Petit went on to allow just one run and four hits in six innings with nine strikeouts in that starts vs. the Colorado Rockies here, but he then got hit hard in a rematch with the Rockies last Tuesday allowing six earned runs in four innings. However, that was primarily because his breaking pitches did not having the same bite in the altitude of Denver and he should be able to regain his previous form now returning home to sea level.
And you certainly cannot knock Petit’s two career starts vs. the Diamondbacks, which both came last season, as first he allowed two runs on seven hits with an impressive 10 strikeouts in six innings in Phoenix, and then he tossed a Complete Game one-hit shutout vs. Arizona here by the Bay.
Miley in Fine Form
With that being said, Petit may not get much run support here as Miley enters this contest in fine form. Remember that Miley received some Rookie of the Year consideration in 2012 when he won 16 games and finished with a 3.33 ERA, but he had been unable to match that form since then. At least not until recently as Wiley recorded his fifth straight Quality Start when he allowed just one run on seven hits in seven innings vs. the San Diego Padres last Tuesday.
Miley also has good numbers vs. the Giants as he owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 46.2 innings in six career starts against them while holding San Francisco batters to a .223 batting average, as he was brilliant the last time he faced them tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing just four hits here in San Francisco on July 12th.
An ‘under’ Head-to-Head Series
Finally these teams have become accustomed to playing low scoring games against each other, especially at AT&T Park as the ‘under’ is 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in this stadium.
Look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game given this pitching matchup in San Francisco on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Giants ‘under’ 6½ (+100)