NL Cy Young Odds Favor Greinke but Best Value Lies in Betting Scherzer

Charles Stark

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 4:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2015 4:37 PM UTC

*** Odds were gathered from several different sports book and sometimes combined as an average ***

After finishing up my article on the odds value for the AL Cy Young award it's time to take a look at the National League. Similar to the American League there are a few guys that have a legitimate shot at winning this award. Much like my other articles involving player props I want to focus not only on just the players but the value placed on each one in proportion to their chance of actually winning the award. According to the odds makers there are five guys with a decent chance to win it this year.

Zack Greinke -120: After going head-to-head with Max Scherzer today and winning he is the odds on favorite to win this award. At -120 though I don't know about the value here considering the fact that their other pitchers that still have a pretty decent chance to win. His numbers are ridiculous with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP, WAR of 5.5, along with a record of 9-2, and 117 strikeouts. The most ridiculous number for me though is 19, because that is how many runs he is given up total so far this season. Also, he is already won this award in the American League a few years back so he has the fortitude to finish the season on a strong note. Still, even with these unreal numbers I would rather focus on the guys that will give me a little more bang for my buck.


Gerrit Cole +600:  This would've been a pretty strong play about four games back and I would say he is out of it, and even as far as value goes probably a layoff. Talk about the year of the pitcher though, normally how could you not want to back a guy with a 2.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, a 13-3 record, and 116 strikeouts. On top of those numbers is that he is the ace of one of the best teams in baseball.  Even with the Pirates making a push unless the other guys ahead of him start to falter it'll be very difficult for him to win the award.


Max Scherzer +300: After the loss to the Dodgers his MLB odds shifted from +250 to +300, and this is the guy who almost threw two no-hitters in a row. This is some pretty good value on another ace on one of the best teams in baseball. Like Greinke, his numbers are sick, a 2.09 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, a WAR of 4.7, and 158 strikeouts. Every time he pitches you know he is going to be lights out, and at 3 to 1 odds I think that is pretty good MLB betting value on a guy who is arguably the best pitcher in baseball overall. I can't think of anyone that would fault you for taking him at this point, at these odds, to win the Cy Young.


Clayton Kershaw +1200: The three-time Cy Young award winner and MVP of last season is getting some serious value and is starting to show why many consider him to be the best pitcher in baseball. He simply had a tough start of the season but I would not count him out of this race. Honestly, if the Dodgers had one game to win to save their season and both Greinke and Kershaw were rested, who do you think they would throw? Don't think for one second the answer would be that easy no matter what kind of season Greinke is having so far. That point alone says a lot about Kershaw and at that +1200 why wouldn't you want to take a shot? So far he has a 2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, a 2.9 WAR, and 174 strikeouts which leads the NL. He is the type of pitcher that can absolutely dominate the second half and by September we could be talking about him as the front runner once again for the Cy Young award.  His record though might be a hindrance to him claiming his third in a row and fourth overall.


AJ Burnett +1400:  I love what he is doing this season which will be his last in the major leagues, and his numbers have been excellent with a 2.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.5 WAR. Out of all the front runners for this award though he has allowed the most hits and has the least amount of strikeouts, so even at this high number there really isn't a lot of value on him unless nostalgia comes in the play. At the end of the day though he is not going to beat out these other guys ahead of him.

The Value MLB Pick: Scherzer +300

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