Nice Profit with MLB Picks Parlay: Marlins vs. Dodgers Game 1

Mark Lathrop

Monday, May 11, 2015 3:27 PM GMT

The red-hot Dodgers feature their second ace as they look to continue their recent form against the Miami Marlins. Our handicapper looks at the matchup and gives his MLB picks of the day.

The Miami Marlins make a quick jaunt down the California coastline to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday night in the first game of their three game series in LA. Miami is coming off of a loss last night the Giants, as they were never able to get the bats going and lost 3-2. The Dodgers hitters fully enjoyed their time in the rarified air in Colorado yesterday afternoon, putting up 9 runs in route to a 9-5 beat down of the Rockies. The Dodgers have been red hot with an 8-2 record over their last ten games, and own the second best record in the MLB at 20-10. The Marlins have cooled off a bit over their last eight games since going streaking the last few weeks of April, going 3-5. Opening MLB Odds have the Dodgers favored heavily, and rightly so, at -200 on the money line, with the O/U total posted at 7.

Going for the Dodgers tonight is Zack Greinke, who has won five straight decisions and is sporting a sparkly 1.56 ERA, 34/9 K/BB ratio, and 0.84 WHIP. Greinke will be pitching with an extra day of rest tonight thanks to a rainout in Colorado on Saturday that pushed the Dodgers rotation out a day. His last start against Milwaukee was brilliant, getting through 7.2 innings while allowing just two hits and striking out seven. It’s been that way most of the season of course, and Greinke has pitched at least six innings in all of his starts thus far. We should expect more of the same with him tonight against the Marlins as he is 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA in five starts against them in five starts.

Taking the mound for the Marlins is Tom Koehler, who became a serviceable part of the Marlins rotation last year, going 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA over 32 starts. He has been inconsistent this season and just got rocked in Washington by Bryce Harper on Wednesday, giving up 3 HR’s to the budding superstar. Interestingly enough, Koehler pitched 7.1 innings of shutout ball against those same Nationals at home just two weeks before. Although the season is young, Koehler is featuring a pretty drastic home/away split right now, and is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts at Dodger stadium lifetime.

 

MLB Betting Verdict 
I don’t think analyzing the starters any further will do us any good, as there is a clear winner on every front with Greinke. My only reservation would be that Greinke could be a little rusty out of the gate with the unplanned extra day of rest. Instead I’m going to look at what the Dodgers offense does in support of Greinke, and those results are impressive indeed. The Dodgers have won the last five games started by Greinke by an average of 3.8 runs, and have put up an average of 6.2 runs of support over that span. I think we have two options for our MLB picks in tonight’s game, parlay the money line -200 with over 7 (+180 payout), or take the run line +1.5 for the Dodgers at +100. With the last five games of Koehler starts resulting in seven runs or more, I’m going to be parlaying the money line with the over to get some extra juice to start the week.

MLB Parlay Pick: Dodgers -200 with Over 7 at Bovada