Nice Price in Royals-Twins MLB Picks on Run Line (-1 ½ R/+140)

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, April 15, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

Tonight's game opened with the Kansas City Royals as 130 favorite in Money Line MLB Odds, but has since dropped to a -120 favorite, as they face the Twins in Minnesota. Take advantage of our free pick here.

Kansas City Royals (Volquez) (-1 ½ R/+140) at Minnesota Twins (Gibson) 8:10 ET
Kansas City Royals continue their series with the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 ET.  In the series opener on Monday night, the Royals won handily (12-3) to run their record to a perfect 7-0 SU.  That loss, the 3rd straight for Minnesota, left the Twins at 1-6 SU (the worst record in MLB).  Just imagine what this line would be if a big-name team in the American League (think NYY) put up the numbers that KC has in the last 2 seasons.  Tonight's MLB odds opened with Kansas City as a 130 favorite.  We are “all in (on the run line)” for the reasons described below.

The playoff days of this Minnesota Twins franchise are a distant memory.  In the last 3 seasons, the Twins have averaged just 67 victories per year (topping out with a 70-92 season of last).  Home field has been of little value, as their record in that time has averaged 33-48.  New skipper, Paul Molitor, said it best when asked about the status of his team.  “We are not pitching particularly well.  We are not fielding particularly well.  We are not swinging particularly well.  And, I’m probably not managing particularly well.”   That just about sums it up for a Twins team who has totaled just 16 runs in 7 starts.  Tonight’sstarter, Gibson, does not figure to be the answer, as, in the 7-1 loss at Detroit, he lasted just 3 2/3 IP, allowing 6 runs on 8 hits with 5 walks.  

The Royals proved last year that small ball can still win in MLB.  This team improved in the last 3 seasons from 72 to 86 to 89 wins with a World Series appearance.  This year, they have added power to the arsenal as they have clouted 10 HRs.  That blends perfectly with the fact that they have committed just 1 error and have a bullpen that has yet to allow an earned run in 19 IP.     Should tonight’s starter, Volquez, match his Game 1 performance, the relief corps should have another easy night.  In his season debut against the LA Angels, Volquez pitched 8 IP, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits.  The bottom line is that the Royals lead MLB with a +34 run differential in which they have averaged more than 7 RPG on offense, while allowing an MLB-leading 18 runs on defense.  Dating back to last season, the Royals are on a 59-27 run, including 30-11 on the road.  

We could comfortably lay the 120 price on the road with KC.  But why not turn this into a nice underdog MLB pick by using the run line based on the following proprietary information available exclusively to this bureau?  In the Royals’ last 51 road wins, 43 of them (84%) have come by 2 or more runs.  This includes all 4 this season!  For the Twins, 38 of their last 47 home losses (81%) have been by 2 or more runs.  Based on the above information in this analysis, we must feel comfortable laying the runs and taking the price in a matchup of 2 teams headed opposite directions.

Free MLB Pick: Take Kansas City Royals +138 on the Run Line at Pinnacle

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