Nats Have Value Against Slumping Mets Today

Jason Lake

Sunday, April 30, 2017 1:12 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 30, 2017 1:12 PM UTC

The New York Mets were on the wrong side of the MLB odds, but they beat the Washington Nationals back-to-back. Now the Mets are favored for Sunday’s series finale.

N.Y. Mets vs Washington Nationals

The New York Mets can’t seem to catch a break. They went into the 2017 campaign as solid +1400 third-tier contenders on the World Series futures market, but just like last year, the injury bug is feasting on the Big Apple. The Mets starting rotation is already a mess, leaving them tied for last in the National League East at 10-13 (–6.64 betting units) as we go to press.

And that’s after claiming a pair of upset victories over the first-place Washington Nationals (16-8, +4.16 units). The finale of their three-game series in D.C. is Sunday afternoon, starting at 1:35 p.m. Eastern on WPIX and the MLB Network; New York is a –125 favorite on the MLB odds board this time, but now doesn’t look like the right moment to start investing in the Mets.

Thor Muscles

First, the math. FiveThirtyEight projects New York to win this game just 48 percent of the time, which translates to +108 using our electrifying SBR Betting Odds Converter. The odds usually don’t stray too far from the computer projections these days, so what’s going on?

Noah Syndergaard (0.81 FIP), that’s what. The dynamic All-Star is on a roll, providing four straight quality starts for the Mets and allowing just five earned runs in 26 innings of work. Everyone loves Syndergaard. However, New York only went 2-2 in those four starts for a loss of 1.33 units, and Syndergaard is not on his usual turn in the rotation – he was supposed to pitch Thursday but was scratched with tendinitis in his biceps.

Noah Syndergaard on refusing MRI: 'I think I know my body best.' 

— theScore (@theScore) April 29, 2017

Washington responds with Joe Ross (5.58 FIP), who got roughed up in his last start at Coors Field – but the Nats still won 15-12 to improve to 2-0 when Ross takes the mound. He posted a 3.49 FIP as a sophomore last year while making 19 starts; Ross is a largely unknown commodity at the back end of Washington’s rotation, but that just adds to their value for our MLB picks, especially with Mets OF Yoenis Cespedes (.992 OPS) officially on the 10-day DL after tweaking his left hamstring on Thursday.

Free MLB Pick: Washington +113Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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