Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Picks: Go 'Under' as Scherzer vs. Harang is a Better Than Advertised Pitching Matchup

Charles Stark

Thursday, June 25, 2015 10:42 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 10:42 PM UTC

For our under the total play in major league baseball we head to the city of brotherly love as the Washington Nationals take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Two veteran pitchers take the mound today and I don't anticipate a lot of runs being scored.

Betting Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with this line at 6.5, which makes perfect sense. This is about what I thought the line would be when I saw this pitching matchup, but I still think it's a bit too high. At most places you can get the 6.5 at regular juice of -110 and I don't think this line is going to fluctuate too much. BetCris has one of the earlier lines out at that 6.5.


Veteran Pitchers Too High at Most Sportsbooks
Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Washington Nationals and is a serious contender for the Cy Young. He has a ridiculous ERA of 1.76 and WHIP of 0.80 with eight wins and five losses, and there is not been a more dominating pitcher in baseball this year. In his last two games he has allowed one hit in 18 innings and zero earned runs, that is not a typo, he has been absolutely lights out. On the road? No problem, in away games this year he has a 1.27 ERA and batters are only hitting .187 against him. For the Phillies Aaron Harang gets the call and comes in with a 3.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The 13 year veteran has not been sharp though his last three games allowing 15 runs in 18 innings. Still, two of those games were on the road and at home this year Harang has a solid 2.49 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Washington has a pretty decent offense, but he is good enough to keep them in check today.

Must Read: MLB Picks: World Series Futures Odds Update

There is a huge disparity between these two teams at the plate. Washington ranks ninth in the league in runs scored per game and the Phillies dead last. That is pretty much the theme between these two teams, Washington is a middle tiered offense as far as rankings go and the Phillies are in the bottom of the league in most categories. Continuing with this theme, Washington ranks 10th in the league in on base plus slugging percentage compared to the Phillies, who rank second to last at 29th. There is one stat that is quite interesting though, despite the Phillies' struggles at the plate they are the seventh best team in the major leagues in strikeouts per game. Washington ranks 17th in this category.

Look for Scherzer to be his dominant self and shut the Phillies down, it could be a really long day for them. Harang has been a lot tougher at home and should do a decent enough job to keep the Nationals down in the run column, back the under in this spot.

MLB Pick: Under 6.5 at 5Dimes

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