Nationals Rare Home Underdogs Vs. deGrom, Mets

jacob degrom

Wednesday, July 5, 2017 12:38 PM GMT

The Nationals are home underdogs for the second time all season as they host Jacob deGrom and the Mets Wednesday night (7:05 ET). Tanner Roark gets the honors for Washington. Click here for a game betting preview and pick.

New York Mets (38-45)

Whether bad luck, a bad team or a combination of both, the Mets stunk in the first half of 2017. Their difficulties are most apparent when playing quality ball clubs. Versus opponents with a winning record, New York is 7-22 overall, losing 11 of its last 12. This includes an 11-4 romp by the NL East-leading Nationals on Tuesday.

No matter what the opponent’s record, the Mets own a winning mark behind just one starter: Jacob deGrom (10-6). The right-hander gets the honors for manager Terry Collins on Wednesday. deGrom is 8-3 with a 3.55 ERA, earning a win in each of his last four outings. In this stretch, he’s allowed 3 earned runs on 15 hits in 32 innings, lowering his ERA from 4.75 to its current mark.

DeGrom is 4-3 with a 2.95 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals. Half of these outings occurred in the nation’s capital, where the strikeout artist is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. Overall, his 73 Ks versus Washington hitters are second most only to the Marlins.

The current Nationals roster bats a measly .187 (23-of-123) combined against deGrom. Some of the team’s better sluggers have hit the right-hander well, however, including Bryce Harper (9-for-24), Ryan Zimmermann (5-for-16) and former teammate Daniel Murphy (3-for-9). Overall, the lineup has hit just six for extra bases, four of which have gone over the fence.

The Mets are 17-9 as road chalk behind deGrom in his career, returning 12 percent profit to backers at -136 average odds. The 'over' is 7-2 when going off at -120 or shorter.

 

Washington Nationals (50-34)

In the last calendar year, only the Dodgers (99-63) sport a better regular-season record then Washington (95-67) in the National League. One area the Nationals excel is against weaker NL East opponents. The team’s 64 percent win rate (48-27) against division foes in this span is higher than any club in MLB.

The Nationals have tossed the first pitch once all season as a home underdog. The contest occurred April 30 against Noah Syndergaard and the Mets. Washington scored a franchise-high 23 runs on 23 hits in a 23-5 rout. Joe Ross was the beneficiary on the hill that day.

Tanner Roark is hoping he gets similar run support tonight, as he takes the pill in search of a series sweep over the Mets. Roark is 6-6 with a 5.27 ERA in 17 appearances this season. He’s dropped four of his last five decisions, ceding a whopping 24 earned runs in 22.2 innings overall. The right-hander’s ERA was 3.86 entering June.

Roark pitches well against the Mets, going 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 16 outings (10 starts). The current roster hits a lowly .216 against (30-of-139) with Curtis Granderson the only member of the lineup with six plate appearances or more batting better than .250 (9-of-27). The veteran outfielder also owns the team’s lone home run against.

 

Final Analysis

In the last calendar year, the Mets are 7-15 head-to-head with Washington. Offense is an issue, crossing the plate just 3.23 times per game. DeGrom will keep the Mets close, but a bet either way is a crapshoot. The 'under' holds the most value with some books dipping to 8.5 after a 9 opener. Get on the initial offer before it is gone.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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