MLB MVP Odds and Picks: 2022 Futures Favorites, Contenders, and Longshots

It is a duel between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres for the NL West and the NL MVP. Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts is the new favorite, however, Padres third baseman Manny Machado is right behind him in the odds. We examine the MLB MVP futures odds to determine which players represent value with our picks.

In the past, Los Angeles Angels dual threat Shohei Ohtani had been considered the favorite for the AL MVP Award, but New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has since taken that honor away from him. In addition to being the new favorite in the market, Judge's odds have been revised significantly, and we are now seeing him as short as +105 to win the award via DraftKings Sportsbook.

After rising up the odds board and becoming the favorite to win the NL MVP, Machado has since been overtaken by Betts. Machado is not going away quietly, however, and he appears to be in the mix for the long haul in this market.

https://twitter.com/BallySportsSD/status/1535454189907845121

In placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: will this player actually win the market, and are their odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is "yes" to both of these questions, then you should consider purchasing that specific player.

In this article, we analyze the AL and NL MVP futures odds in search of value picks.

AL MVP Odds

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/e9Poi/1/

AL MVP Picks: Favorites

Judge, OF, New York Yankees (+115 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Judge opened at +2000 and has now dropped as low as +105 at DraftKings. In the AL MVP market, Judge is a significant favorite, and for good reason. His statistics are beyond impressive, and the Yankees look like a team capable of winning 100-plus games. Providing Judge remains healthy, this seems to be his award to lose. Despite my belief that he is clearly the frontrunner for the AL MVP, Judge's odds of +115 are virtually impossible to bet at this point in the season.

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1535950852254380032

Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels (+400 via PointsBet)

Despite the major adjustment to Judge's odds and the Angels losing 14 games in a row, the sportsbooks have been reluctant to increase Ohtani's odds because of the potential liability that may ensue. Ohtani was priced at +350 to win the AL MVP at the beginning of May, and he is now just 50 cents longer at +400.

Trout, OF, Angels (+650 via FanDuel)

In a similar fashion to Ohtani, sportsbooks have been hesitant to increase Mike Trout's MVP odds. Despite losing a lot of ground to Judge over the past month, Trout opened at +400 and has been pushed back to just +650. As the Angels lack team success, the +650 price point available on Trout becomes increasingly unattractive.

AL MVP Picks: Contenders

Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians (+1100 via FanDuel)

Guardians infielder Jose Ramirez is without a doubt the most disrespected player in the AL MVP race, and it's not even close. If Judge sustained an injury, Ramirez would be the first player I would look to buy. This is because we would be comparing his statistics to those of Ohtani and Trout who also lack team success on their resumes. Ramirez should remain on your radar as his statistics are worthy of an AL MVP Award.

Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox (+1600 via FanDuel)

Having opened at +2000 and touched +3000 at the beginning of May, we are now seeing Red Sox infielder Rafael Devers trade at +1600 for the AL MVP. Although +1600 isn't a bad price when considering Devers' statistics, I don't see him being able to surpass Judge due to the rivalry and the success the Yankees are enjoying.

Alvarez, DH/OF, Houston Astros (+2500 via FanDuel)

Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is going to give you a lot of production at the plate, but his inability to play plus defense will make winning the AL MVP extremely difficult. He would have to win this award purely based on the production of his bat. Alvarez began the year with odds of +2500 to win the AL MVP, and his odds remain unchanged.

Guerrero, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays (+3500 via FanDuel)

Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s odds for the AL MVP increased considerably this season after opening at +450. Guerrero's odds are now +3500 to win the AL MVP award at FanDuel. The movement in Guerrero's odds was actually quite predictable since he is very dependent on his bat in order to win this award. Even at +3500, Guerrero's odds are too short, and I expect his price to continue to rise.

Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (+5000 via FanDuel)

At the beginning of May, Twins outfielder Byron Buxton was priced at +1200 to win the AL MVP, which was a very low price for someone who will not play the same number of games as many of his competitors. We are now seeing Buxton trade at +5000 and due to this, your opinion must change. Although I have not yet purchased Buxton, I am keeping a close watch on his odds to see how long they get. With the Twins in first place in the AL Central, he may be worth an investment at some point.

https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1535436135257690117

AL MVP Picks: Longshots

Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (+10000 via FanDuel)

Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has the complete style of play that could make him a potential AL MVP contender and he was a popular pick among many when the odds were released. With the Astros in first place in the AL West and Tucker swinging a hot bat, buying Tucker at +10000 is a much better investment than when he was at +3500 at the start of the season.

NL MVP Odds

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/osuyX/1/

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

NL MVP Best Bet

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves (+12500 viaCaesars Sportsbook)

NL MVP Picks: Favorites

Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (+325 via Caesars)

In early May, Betts was available at +2500 at Caesars to win the NL MVP Award. He is now listed as short as +270 with DraftKings and is the consensus favorite at all sportsbooks. Betts is likely to remain in this race for some time with the Dodgers primed to win a lot of games, however, I believe there is a better value in another player wearing Dodgers blue.

Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres (+420 via FanDuel)

Machado is not going away in this market, as evidenced by his pricing. It is interesting to note that he was at the top of the odds board at the start of May, a position he has since conceded to Betts, although his price has decreased since then. Machado previously had a +650 price point, but the best that can be found in the updated market is a +420. It is no longer a matter of if but rather when you should add Machado to the portfolio.

https://twitter.com/SBRSportsPicks/status/1535748131526148096

Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (+420 via FanDuel)

At the beginning of the season, Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt's odds for winning the NL MVP were +5000, and they reached a high of +8000 at the beginning of May. Goldschmidt is trading at odds of +420, a price point I would not buy. Goldschmidt is having an excellent season, but I expect his odds to follow the same pattern as teammate Nolan Arenado. It is likely that Goldschmidt will spend some time with the favorites before drifting back into the +2500 range sooner than later, as his lack of defense does not give him the staying power.

NL MVP Picks: Contenders

Alonso, 1B, New York Mets (+1000 via Caesars)

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso began the year with odds of +4000 to win the NL MVP but is now listed as short as +800 on FanDuel. You would have a hard time convincing me to invest my money in Alonso, especially since he is not even among the top 10 in the NL in terms of fWAR. In my opinion, Alonso is a fade in the NL MVP market, especially at +1000, since I do not imagine that he can overtake Machado or Betts, who are also doing it with both their bat and their defense.

Harper, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (+1000 via PointsBet)

As I have been stating all season, and I intend to continue to do so, I do not want Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper in this market. On top of fighting voter fatigue as the NL MVP winner from last season, Harper is now restricted to serving as a DH due to an injured throwing shoulder. I am not interested in his current price, particularly the +750 offered at Caesars.

Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves (+2000 via Caesars)

Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. initially had odds of +1000 but has since been adjusted to a longer price of +2000. Since he didn't join the lineup until the end of April, his campaign was hampered by missed games. You may want to keep an eye on Acuna's odds; he could quickly find himself in the middle of this race, and his +2000 price is intriguing.

Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals (+3000 via FanDuel)

It has been a rough month for Arenado backers as his odds have continued to inflate. We are now seeing Arenado trade at +3000 after his odds became as short as +600 at the beginning of May. Arenado has lost a lot of momentum in this market, largely as a result of the success of his Goldschmidt in St. Louis.

Turner, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (+3500 via FanDuel)

During spring training, I pre-flopped Turner at +1600 and I am about to invest in him once again. In spite of the fact that he has been among the most productive players in the NL of late, the sportsbooks continue to lengthen his odds. I will increase my investment in Turner futures once I see that the sportsbooks have stopped lengthening his odds.

NL MVP Picks: Longshots

Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves (+12500 via Caesars)

I wrote about Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson as a longshot candidate ahead of the season, asking the question, what if he hits? If you combine Swanson's hitting with his excellent defense, you have a player who is accumulating WAR at a rapid pace. Despite Swanson's excellent play this season, sportsbooks have largely forgotten about him, and you can still find him at +12500 to win the NL MVP. As a comparison, Detroit Tigers second baseman Javier Baez is priced to win the AL MVP at +10000, $25 cheaper than Swanson.

https://twitter.com/JonMetler/status/1536185649350463488

MLB MVP Winners and Odds

American League

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1h9Os/1/

National League

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gwige/1/

Where to Bet on MLB MVP Odds

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.