Motivated Angels to Continue Winning Streak & Sweep Mariners

Darin Zank

Monday, September 28, 2015 4:32 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 28, 2015 4:32 PM GMT

The Angels, winners of four games in a row, shoot for a sweep of Seattle, which has lost four in a row, Sunday at the Big A. Do we go along with the "streak" betting theory for our free MLB pick?

Mariners-Angels Sunday Odds
In the very early betting on today's game the best MLB odds we could find on Anaheim with Jered Weaver was the -109 offered at Heritage, while Seattle and Hisashi Iwakuma were getting +101 at Pinnacle.

 

The Situation
Anaheim has taken the first two games of this series, including a 3-2 decision Saturday night, courtesy of David Freese's walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth. That victory also gave us a winner with our free MLB pick on Saturday's contest.

So the Angels have won four games in a row, while Seattle has lost four straight.

At 80-74 Anaheim still trails Houston by just a half-game in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

At 74-81 the Mariners will finish a long ways back of their preseason betting wins total for this season of 87.

The Angels lead this season series 11 games to seven, with the UNDERS going 10-7-1.

 

Sunday's Starters
Weaver (7-12, 4.86) is just 10-for-24 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Monday he gave up five runs in 5 2/3 innings against Houston, and just before that he gave up three runs in 4 2/3 innings against this Seattle outfit, before getting ejected for plunking the Mariners' Kyle Seager. And over his last six outings he's given up at least five runs three times.

Anaheim is 10-14 in Weaver's starts this season, with the UNDERS going 13-10.

In two starts this season against Seattle Weaver has allowed seven runs through 10 2/3 innings; the Angels lost both those games.

Iwakuma (9-4, 3.67) is nine-for-18 on quality starts this season, but three for his last four. Last Tuesday he shut out Kansas City on three hits through seven innings, whiffing 10, and over his last four starts, including a winning effort against this Anaheim club 11 days ago, he's held foes to five runs through 25 2/3 innings.

The Mariners are 11-7 in Iwakuma's starts, with the totals splitting 9-9.

In three starts this season against Anaheim Iwakuma has allowed six runs – five earned – through 20 innings; Seattle won two of those games, and two games played UNDER.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
Seattle ranks 21st in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .310 team on-base percentage, and 14th with a .409 team slugging percentage.

Anaheim, meanwhile, ranks 26th against righties with a .306 team OBP and 19th with a .401 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at the Big A this season are 42-32 on the UNDERS, averaging 7.5 runs per, fourth-fewest among all ML ballparks.

 

Injury Update
Anaheim closer Huston Street pulled a groin Saturday, and not in the good way; his status for Sunday is uncertain.

 

M's-Angels Free Picks
We give Seattle short edges in the pitching match-up and with the sticks, but motivation plays a key factor here, and Anaheim just needs this one more. Also, while we don't always abide by it, the “streak” theory comes into play here. So we'll add the Angels to our list of free MLB picks for Sunday.

MLB Pick: Angels -109 at Heritage

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