Most Profitable MLB Teams Against The Run Line

Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks

Jake Walker

Wednesday, April 19, 2017 3:40 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 19, 2017 3:40 PM GMT

In this article we look at the best and most profitable run line teams this season so you can know who to target with your MLB picks and who to stay away from.

Casual bettors might have heard about run lines but they haven't had the chance to really understand what they are and how to really profit with them.

Betting on runlines can be compared to betting against the spread in sports like football and basketball. With the runline, you don't have to bet on a team to win the game straight up; instead, you bet on whether they win by at
least two runs.

Run line favorites and underdog are usually listed at -1.5 on the MLB odds boards. Favorites would have to win by at least two runs for the bet to hit while while underdogs would have to either win the game or lose by exactly one run
for the best to cash.
 
Betting runline favorites is a good strategy if you want to maximize your payouts. Here's an example: the Mariners were at -133 on the moneyline on Monday night's game against the Marlins, but +156 on the runline. The Mariners beat the Marlins 6-1, so they covered the runline.

Here's the difference in profits based on a $100 bet on the Mariners with those odds. 
 
Moneyline = $100
Runline = $156 
 
Below are the results for the Top 10 teams since the start of the 2017 regular season, as of Wednesday, April 19.

 

Team                          Runline Record
Diamondbacks       10-5
Reds                           9-5
Yankees                    9-5
White Sox                 8-5
Phillies                       8-5
Brewers                    9-6
Rays                           9-6
Rangers                    8-6
Twins                         8-6
Red Sox                    8-6
Marlins                     8-6

As you can see, the Diamondbacks have the best runline record so far at 10-5, with the Reds and the Yankees at second place at 9-5. The Blue Jays (not on the table) on the other hand have the worst runline record at just 3-10.

 

Team                          Cover Percentage
Diamondbacks        66.7%    
Reds                            64.3%    
Yankees                     64.3%    
White Sox                 61.5%    
Phillies                       61.5%    
Brewers                     60.0%    
Rays                           60.0%    
Rangers                    57.1%    
Twins                         57.1%    
Red Sox                    57.1%    
Marlins                     57.1%    

This table reflects that the Diamondbacks have covered the runline 66.7% of the time. The next teams with the best cover percentage are the Reds and the Yankees at 64.3%. 

 

Team                            Average margin of victory
Reds                             1.5       
Yankees                      1.4 
Dodgers                      1.3
Diamondbacks         1.1
Twins                           1.0
Marlins                        0.9 
White Sox                   0.6
Brewers                      0.5 
Rangers                      0.5
Astros                         0.5 
 
Sorting the teams by their average margin of victory (negative in losses) revealed that the Reds lead the majors with a 1.5 average margin of victory.

Considering that they're 9-5 on the runline and have a 1.5 average margin of victory, the Reds can be a solid bet right now because when they win games, they do so by 1.5 runs.

 

Team                             Runline +/-
Diamondbacks          +2.2
Reds                              +1.9
Brewers                       +1.6
Twins                            +1.4
White Sox                   +1.4
Marlins                        +1.3 
Rays                             +1.1
Rangers                      +0.9 
Phillies                        +0.9

The Runline +/- is a metric that measure the average amount of runs that the team covers the runline by. So far, the Diamondbacks lead MLB covering the runline by an average of 2.2 runs, so when they cover, they do it by a wide a margin. Finding value is they key, so use these stats to your advantage when placing MLB picks, find profitable spots and shop for the best lines at top sportsbooks like Bookmaker or Pinnacle.

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