More Than Reachable 'Over' In Braves vs. Mets Makes Profitable MLB Pick

Drew Martin

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 6:43 PM GMT

Atlanta Braves and New York Mets face each other in a questionable pitching match up where the 'over' is pretty much a guaranteed MLB pick to profit from.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
The New York Mets play host to the Atlanta Braves in the middle game of a three game set tonight at Citi field. This incarnation of the divisional matchup pins the Braves’ Matt Wisler against Mets’ hurler Matt Harvey. Both of these National League East rivals are quietly trending to the over, and with two bad bullpens backing up starting pitchers that have major question marks, the combined total of seven is more than reachable.

 

New York's Lineup
The Mets’ lineup has caught fire in the last week, spurred on by a serious power surge. The team OPS over the last 7 days is a solid .819, and the lineup has jacked eight homeruns in the last week. Case in point, the Mets hit 3 homeruns off the young Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz yesterday alone. The second place Mets blasted out of the gates with first-inning homers from David Wright, and back to back shots from Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda, in what was a momentum shift that quickly set a tone for the series.

“I’m not sure if we can keep up this pace for the rest of the year,” Wright said after the Mets upped their homer total to 36 in 24 games, but even with a small decline, New York should continue to make life difficult for opposing pitchers. The consecutive homers from Cespedes and Duda marked the fifth time that the Mets have hit back-to-back homers this season.

 

An Impressive Offense
With the Mets putting together a very impressive offensive power streak, they should also benefit from the fragile mindset of Atlanta’s starter Matt Wisler. The 23 year-old was a seventh round draft pick by the Padres, and came to Atlanta in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The young righty has shown glimpses of a bright future, and I believe he has the stuff to be a solid middle of the rotation arm.

That said, he has been very susceptible to giving up the “big inning.” Wisler has not shown the ability to turn things around when an inning starts going south, which is exactly the type of profile this Mets team excels against.

 

Harvey's Performance
On the other side of the equation, Mets’ starter Matt Harvey will face this Atlanta lineup for the second time in under a two-week span. Last time out in Turner Field, Harvey hardly had his best stuff, gutting through five innings of two-run ball on 101 pitches, and efficiency will be critical for him when he faces the Braves tonight for the second time in three starts.

The box score from his last outing against the Braves also does not tell the full story of Harvey’s struggles. He was hit hard by this Atlanta lineup, as he gave up seven line drives, and was touched up for a 44% hard-hit rate through those five innings.

 

Conclusions
The total on tonight’s game sits at 7, a very low total for two pitchers that have more than a few reasons for concern. Once you get past the starters, the outlook further points to the over. It is no secret that the Braves’ bullpen (1.56 WHIP) is one of the worst in MLB, and the Mets’ pen has not performed well either, as New York currently sports a 1.30 WHIP YTD.

Combine that with a Mets offense that is on fire right now, and a Braves team that is quietly +6 units to the over to this point in the season, and the over begins to look like a solid play. With all of these factors and MLB odds in consideration, I recommend a wager on the over as your MLB picks for tonight in Citi Field.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7
Best Line Offered: at Heritage