Money Line Monday: Baseball Picks of the Day

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 21, 2017 12:19 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 21, 2017 12:19 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots two great value lines on the short Monday MLB card, with two winning teams looking to take advantage of two losing teams for his Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

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Milwaukee looks to continue San Francisco’s sad season on Monday night, as one of the leading pitchers in the MLB takes the mound. Our MLB handicapper likes the value of backing a 14-win pitcher with a road first 5 innings moneyline.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants

Zach Davies is only behind Clayton Kershaw in wins this season with 14. Of the fourteen pitchers with 12 or more wins on the year Davies has nearly the highest ERA though at 4.26 with a 4.49 FIP. This is not the team to expect his regression to occur tonight with the Giants being the 28th ranked overall offense in the MLB. The Giants are also dead last in wRC+, a statistic that compares hitters based on the outcomes of their at bats and runs created. Davies also is much better away than at home, with a 2.52 ERA over 71.1 innings pitched on the season with a .236 overall BAA.

The Brewers will face Chris Stratton who has struggled with his command since being called up from AAA. His BB/9 rate is 4.56 on the season and he has also been hammered by aggressive lineups in his first MLB starts. Stratton is carrying a .375 BAA in his first time going through lineups with a 10.13 ERA. Due to the fact that he may be squirrelly in his first time through the order, I’ll back the veteran Davies here on the first 5 inning moneyline as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers F5 MLAwaiting Line Release

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Our MLB handicapper spots a revenge spot with a prospect that was having a fine AAA season before getting dealt to the Seattle Mariners. He’ll back him while facing a low-caliber Atlanta Braves offense.

Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves

Andrew Albers gets his second start for the Mariners on Monday against the team he was dealt from, the Atlanta Braves. In AAA before getting traded, Albers had put up a 12-3 record with a 2.58 FIP and 115/19 K/BB rate. He is a soft throwing left-hander and has a fastball that sits in the upper-80’s and a slider that comes in over 10 mph less. Albers gave up only one run in his first start against Baltimore with the Mariners and will face Atlanta for the first time in his career.

Mike Foltynewicz gets the start for Atlanta, and he’s been terrible since the All-Star break this season. Folty has put up a 7.41 ERA and .311 BAA in the second half of the season, with some of that being due to a .404 BABIP over that timeframe. That is unlucky, yet his 4.76 BB/9 rate is totally on him. He also struggles against left-handers with a .295 BAA on the season. I’ve used this as a thesis to back the Mariners before, with starters who struggle against lefties being vulnerable against the M’s all year long. I’ll back the Mariners to win their 5th game out of 6 at even-money betting odds as one of my Monday MLB Picks.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners ML Best Line Offered is at 5Dimes

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2017 MLB Record, 171-155-9, +3.85 Units

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