Money Line MLB Picks: Early Red Bird Bettors Get the Value

David Lawrence

Monday, August 24, 2015 11:46 AM GMT

Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 11:46 AM GMT

We've scrutinized the MLB odds in search of Monday's best bets & have decided to focus on the Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks. If Lynn pitches to his standards, he should outduel Ray and give the Red Birds a win.

Cardinals vs. Diamondback MLB Odds
The St. Louis Cardinals endured a poor weekend in San Diego against the Padres, but they still have a small cushion in the National League Central. Playing the Arizona Diamondbacks – who have former Cardinal manager Tony La Russa in the front office – is supposed to be another chance for the Cardinals to win a series and pad their lead in their division. However, if they can’t win the first game of the series, they might lose their second straight series and jeopardize their chances of going straight into the League Division Series when they make the playoffs.

 

Momentum
The two teams are in very different places in the standings, of course, but relative to the weekend and very recent history, the Diamondbacks are the much hotter team. Arizona swept four games from the Cincinnati Reds in Ohio, and what really has to encourage the Diamondbacks is that they won in many different ways. They won a high-scoring game, 11-7. They won a 4-0 game. They won a 5-4 game and a 6-3 game. Close wins, comfortable wins, high-output wins, low-scoring wins – the Diamondbacks did it all. It’s true that Cincinnati is a bad ballclub, but plenty of good teams or (at least) talented teams fail to win various series during the season against teams they should beat. The long run of a baseball season can lead to random results, and Arizona avoided that randomness by taking care of business and moving above the .500 mark.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, played a subpar series against the San Diego Padres. The defense and pitching collapsed in the middle innings of losses to San Diego on Friday and Saturday night. The Cardinals won on Sunday, but losing a series to the Padres represents a giveaway at a time when the hard-charging Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t giving much of anything away. Entering play on Sunday, the Cardinals were just 3.5 games ahead of the Pirates after being six games up for a good portion of the previous few weeks.

 

Pitching Matchup
With Lance Lynn, the Cardinals should feel confident. Lynn has a 2.94 ERA, and that includes a game in which he gave up three earned runs, seven total, on six hits in less than a full inning. He has an occasional bad start, but most of the time he’s outstanding. In his last 10 starts, Lynn – who has a WHIP of 1.31 – has given up two runs or fewer. He has given this team more than it was hoping for, and that has helped the Cardinals to (so far) survive the loss of their ace, Adam Wainwright, to an injury earlier in the season.

Arizona pitcher Robbie Ray has an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.25. All things considered, he’s been surprisingly good after failing to find a foothold with the Detroit Tigers, his previous team. Ray is not a dominant pitcher, but he’s generally good for six innings, giving up no more than three or four runs. He has a 3-9 record, but that’s only because he’s gotten terrible run support this year.

We have a Run Total MLB Pick for Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks here

What’s The Pick?
The Diamondbacks have the momentum, but St. Louis is not likely to keep stumbling against teams it should beat. The Cards opened at -120 at Pinnacle and the line originally dropped, but I’m still going to stick with the Red Birds. If Lynn pitches to his standards, he should outduel Ray and give the Cardinals a win.

MLB Pick: St. Louis -107 at Pinnacle

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