Monday & Tuesday's Pitching to Offer MLB Betting Value

John Ryan

Monday, May 12, 2014 2:57 PM UTC

Monday, May. 12, 2014 2:57 PM UTC

Our handicapper keeps augmenting your bankroll as he goes 10-4 starting the week. Albeit a couple losing picks over the weekend, we look to come back with Monday and Tuesaday's MLB picks. What system and games will our handicapper choose today?

Tuesday Plays 
I like Philadelphia boxed with Cliff Lee when they host the Los Angeles Angels in inter-league action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Lee is 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA on the season and coming off a very poor start by his standards allowing 6ER, 2 HR in 6 1/3 innings of work and 100 pitches. He rarely has back-to-back poor starts and I fully expect him to have one of his more normal and dominating 7+ inning stints Tuesday night.


Review Yesterday's Play Below
For the weekend plays that were outlined Friday, I went 2-2 losing 0.60 units/unit wagered. This puts my 5 Star Titan plays for the season at 10-4 making 5.90 units/unit wagered. I went 0-2 Friday with two bad losers seeing Miami boxed with Fernandez getting slammed and then Arizona boxed with McCarthy getting defeated soundly as well. Saturday saw a winner with Milwaukee defeating the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia and then Sunday an easy winner with John Lackey and the Red Sox defeating Texas in a game they never trailed in. 

Click here to read our daily MLB picks and odds breakdown

Monday's 5 Star Titan Play 
Every bad team has its day and Houston is on my radar for the Monday card. I like taking Houston installed as a modest dog when they host the Texas Rangers and Colby Lewis. Houston has just 12 wins on the season, but this is an excellent spot for them to get a win. Lewis was hammered in his last start allowing 12 hits, 7 ER, striking out one batter in 22 batters that he faced spanning 3 1/2 innings of work. For the season, he has posted a very weak 6.12 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP in five starts spanning just 25 innings of work. He has not made it through the sixth in any of these starts and he won't tonight either.  

Lewis is an 8-year veteran right-handed power pitcher, but not this season where he has allowed a 0.390 batting average to RH batters and a 0.333 batting average to LH batters. At the pro level, a RH starter will have allowed a much lower batting average to RH batters than LH batters. This clearly reflects just how poorly he is pitching. 

Houston sends Brad Peacock to the bump and he is coming off a decent start last Wednesday where he allowed 3 ER over 6 2/3 innings of work against a strong hitting Detroit team. Over his last five starts he has steadily pitched better and I strongly believe he will complete at least six innings in this start. The third-year starter has fared well against the current members of the Rangers allowing a 0.238 batting average in their respective careers.

Supporting this play is a very nice system that has produced a 61-27 mark for 69% winners since 2008. It has averaged a +111 DOG as well. Play against any team (Texas) that is a struggling AL offensive team scoring a team with a below average bullpen sporting an ERA>=5.00 and after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. For this season this system has gone 1-9 and made 7.7 units/unit wagered.


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