Monday's Top Picks on Run Total Odds: Two Low-Scoring Affairs

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 17, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 17, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant shares his two top totals picks on Monday’s card. Read his revealing betting preview article which covers totals in games between Oakland/Baltimore and Tampa Bay/Houston.

A’s (Gray) vs. Orioles (Tillman) 7:05 PM ET
Sonny Gray is certainly in the conversation pertaining to American League Cy Young honors. Gray has gone 6-0-1 under the total during his previous seven starts with a stellar 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and includes three complete game performances. The A’s hurler has been virtually unhittable in his last three starts, evidenced by his microscopic 0.72 ERA during those outings. Gray will be facing an Orioles team that relies heavily on their ability to hit home runs. Case in point, Baltimore has hit a whopping 10 home runs in the first three games of this series. However, they’ll have their work cut out for them today. Sonny Gray has allowed just 2 home runs on the road this season in 82 1/3 innings pitched.

Chris Tillman has gone 6-1 under the total in his previous seven starts with a stellar 2.11 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Orioles will be facing an opposing pitcher (Gray) on Monday that has allowed an average of only 5.0 hits per start this season. Baltimore is 21-6 under the total in 2015 when facing a pitcher who allows 5.5 or less hits per start.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair for one of my MLB picks today. According to the MLB odds board at Pinnacle, they require the least amount of juice to make this exact wager.

MLB Pick: Play on Oakland & Baltimore Under 7.5 (-103) at Pinnacle.


Rays (Ramirez) vs. Astros (Kazmir) 8:10 PM ET
Erasmo Ramirez has allowed 1 earned run or less in eight of his previous ten starts. He’s made one start versus Houston in 2015, and it was a solid performance. During that outing, he allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits in a 3-1 Rays win. Tampa Bay will be facing a Houston club that averages 1.36 home runs per game, and that’s the best in all of baseball. Tampa Bay has gone 20-6 under the total this season when facing an opponent that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game.

Scott Kazmir is 6-1 under the total in his previous seven starts with a microscopic 0.79 ERA. That excellent stretch is no fluke for Houston’s southpaw hurler. Kazmir has a brilliant 2.12 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during twenty-two starts in 2015. The Astros have gone 8-3 under the total in their last eleven contests, and have averaged just 3.0 runs per game during that time frame. Houston has also gone 11-4-2 under the total against Tampa Bay since 2013.

This has the earmarks of a low scoring game. Pinnacle provides us with the best price and number pertaining to making an under wager.

MLB Pick: Play on Tampa Bay & Houston Under 7.5 (-103) at Pinnacle.

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