Our resident MLB handicapping professional shares his two top totals picks of the day. Read his informative breakdown on totals in games involving the Giants/Braves and Mets/Marlins.
Mets (Colon) vs. Marlins (Koehler) 7:10 PM ET
Bartolo Colon has gone 16-5 over the total since 2014 when facing an opponent with a losing record, and that includes 9-0 if it’s game 82 of the season or beyond. Colon has displayed horrible form over his previous four road starts, posting a sizable 8.27 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in those outings. In his last two starts versus Miami this season Colon compiled a lofty 4.61 ERA.
Tom Koehler has very good numbers at home this season. However, he was roughed up in his last start at Marlins Park, allowing 5 earned runs in 6.0 innings during a 7-2 loss to Washington. Koehler has been off the charts awful in two starts versus the Mets this season. In those outings, he has a massive 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP. The Marlins have amassed just 7 hits or less in each of their previous five games. Miami has gone 21-5 over the total since 2014 following five consecutive games in which they had 9 hits or less.
Despite these clubs being two of the weaker hitting teams in the National League, I’m going to lead toward this game being a high scoring affair. One of my MLB picks on Monday will be indicative of that lean.
MLB Pick: Play on the Mets and Marlins Over 7.5 (-105) at 5Dimes.
Giants (Cain) vs. Braves (Foltynewicz) 7:10 PM ET
The veteran Matt Cain has gone 3-0 over the total in his away starts this year, posting an unimpressive 5.62 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Cain allowed 4 home runs in only 16.0 innings pitched during those three road outings. According to the MLB betting odds at Pinnacle, San Francisco is currently a -145 money line road favorite. The Giants are a perfect 9-0 over the total this season as a money line road favorite of -125 or more, and those nine contests averaged a combined 10.6 runs scored per game. As a matter of fact, San Francisco is 32-16 over the total on the road in 2015, and averages a healthy 4.9 runs scored per game.
Mike Foltynewicz has gone 3-1-1 over the total at home this season with a 5.34 ERA in addition to 1.57 WHIP, and those are hardly exemplary numbers. Foltynewicz has been in terrible form in his last four overall starts, posting a large 6.65 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and he allowed 6 home runs in just 21 1/3 innings pitched. Atlanta comes off a 5-2 win at Philadelphia on Sunday, and that was the finale of a ten game road trip. Atlanta has gone 27-15 over the total following a win, and 13-5 over the total following six or more consecutive road games in 2015.
This has the look of a high scoring game, and that’s the direction I’m going for one of my MLB picks today. Currently Heritage is the only major sportsbook with a total of 7.5, and the rest are at 8.0.
MLB Pick: Play on the Giants and Braves Over 7.5 (-110) at Heritage.