Monday's Top MLB Picks of the Day

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 25, 2017 11:40 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 25, 2017 11:40 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, has identified 2 games on the Monday card that have very square betting angles. But with these 2 picks, he's going to let it fly with the masses.

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 Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks 

The hapless Phillies travel Arizona to take on one of the best teams in the National League at Chase Field on Monday. This is a square play on a heavy favorite and you shouldn’t care.

Zack Greinke gets a home start against the 24-49 Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and his team’s 27-10 home mark is opposite of the Phillies’ 14-20 road record. Greinke comes in as a heavy MoneyLine favorite, which sits at -216 at BookMaker on Sunday afternoon. This is a deserved line with Greinke holding a 3.31 FIP on the year and excellent 10.26 K/9 and 1.76 BB/9 rates. He also carries a .203 batting average against at home and a 2.88 ERA in June.

Nick Pivetta of the Phillies gets this start against a Diamondback team that averages 6.4 runs per game at home and a .292 batting average. Pivetta has some control issues on the road and his 1.767 WHIP and 5.92 BB/9 rate will almost certainly get him in trouble if repeated here against the Diamondbacks. He also allows a .290 batting average to right-handers on the season, which can be taken advantage of by Arizona with some decent lineup construction. I’ll back the heavy favorite here on the run line to get some value back, taking the Diamondbacks -1.5 -105 at Heritage as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Pick Arizona -1.5 (-105)Best Lines Available: Heritage

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Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers

With the Dodgers as heavy MoneyLine favorites in this game, and both pitchers possessing huge variabilities in performance, our MLB handicapper looks to the Total for wagering value.

The Angels flew all the way back from Boston on Sunday to take on the Dodgers in this inter-city, interleague matchup. The Angels will have Ricky Nolasco on the mound, a starting pitcher that is dead last in the MLB in FIP at 5.96. One problem is that the 11-year veteran has had his HR/FB% almost double this year to 21.5%. He’s also struggled of late and has allowed a .327 BAA and .598 SLG in 24.0 innings pitched in June.

Taking the mound with -200 chalk for the Dodgers is Rich Hill. If anyone other than Nolasco was on the mound, I’d be looking at fading Hill here. But that is not the case, and we get Hill’s terrible 5.85 BB/9 rate and 5.19 FIP. He’s seen his fastball velocity drop from 2016 1.5 ticks to now average just 88.9mph on the year, and the curveball he throws more than a 3rd of the time he can’t get over for a strike. One if not both of these starters is going to get beat up, and I’ll take the Over of 9 betting odds at Heritage to take advantage as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

Free MLB Pick Over 9Best Lines Found at Heritage

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2017 MLB Record, 121-104-7, +6.68Units, 2.67% ROI

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