Monday's Plus-Money MLB Pick: DeSclafani & Reds vs. Nationals

Charles Stark

Monday, July 6, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

Monday, Jul. 6, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

For Monday's MLB pick on a plus-money underdog, I'm zeroing in on the Cincinnati Reds as they face the Washington Nationals. For me this is a favorable pitching matchup so I will take the better odds. 

Reds vs. Nationals Betting Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with the Reds at a +135 underdog. At some places the odds are a bit better like at Betonline where you can get the Reds at +140. The Reds are in a little bit of a losing streak but in this matchup I think they have a good shot to get the upset win.


Monday's Pitching Matchup
For the Reds Anthony DeSclafani gets the call and comes in with a 3.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  He is not a big strikeout pitcher and is coming off his worst start of the year so he is in a good bounce back spot. Also, he has been very tough on the road with a 2.45 ERA and batters hitting under .200 against him. As well, in his last 10 starts he has only given up four or more runs just three times. Although Washington is a solid hitting team he has the kind of stuff to keep them down in the numbers.

For the Nationals Doug Fister takes the mound with a 4.34 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He has been hot and cold this year but in comparison to his career numbers he's had a rough year. He had a really nice outing two games ago against the Braves where he gave up zero earned runs in seven innings. But in the other four games out of his last five he gave up 19 runs in just 19 innings. I think with how he is pitching this year compared with DeSclafani I think the Reds arguably have the better pitcher on the mound today.


Across the board Washington has been the more productive offense this season compared to the Reds. They are ranked eighth in the league in runs scored per game compared to the Reds who rank 19th. We see similar stats as these two teams matchup in most major offensive categories, in batting average Washington ranks ninth and Cincinnati again 19th. In on base plus slugging percentage Washington again ranks ninth and Cincinnati is ranked a little bit better than their other stats ranked 13th. In short, Washington has the better numbers overall but the disparity is really not that huge. One stat that I do like in which the Reds are ranked higher is in strikeouts or the lack thereof, here the Reds rank eighth in the league compared to Washington ranked 21st.

We come back to the value today when breaking this game down. It makes perfect sense that the Washington Nationals are favored in this spot playing at home and having the better record. But the Reds have enough on the mound and at the plate to pull off the upset today, back the value and the good number on the Reds.

MLB Picks: Reds +130 at Bet365

comment here