Monday's Money-Making MLB Pick Supported by Hard Data

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, June 22, 2015 2:13 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 22, 2015 2:13 PM UTC

This sports handicapper is eager to explain why backing the Minnesota Twins with MLB picks tonight is a fool-proof bet as they host the Chicago White Sox.

Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Minnesota Twins (Milone) (-135) 8:10 ET
The Chicago White Sox visit the Minnesota Twins for the 1st of an early week divisional series.  Each of these teams has been ice cold at the plate.  There are, however, two key advantages for our SIDE in this game.  The first is the pitching matchup for Minnesota with Milone vs. Danks.  The second is a HUGE home/road dichotomy which finds Minnesota with as many home wins as any other team in the American League, while CWS has the fewest road wins in the American League. 

The White Sox enter on a 2-game win streak, each by one run.  That includes Sunday’s 3-2 home field victory over Texas, when the Rangers squandered high percentage chances to score in each of the last two innings.  Those victories, however, have not hidden the offensive deficiencies of CWS.  At the heart of the issue is a .635 OPS (2nd worst in MLB).  Chicago has scored 4 or less runs in 16 of their last 17 games.  That includes scoring 12 total runs in the last 8 games.  Do not expect them to get healthy on the road, where they are an American League worst 12-23.  That includes 6 consecutive road defeats.  Danks will not be their savior!  For the season, Danks is 3-7 with a 5.16 ERA.  Danks has lost his last 3 starts.  On May 3rd against Minnesota, Danks lasted just 2 1/3 IP, allowing 7 runs on 8 hits of a 13-3 loss to Minnesota.  That drops Danks’ career record vs. Minnesota to 1-8 with a 6.78 ERA in 11 starts.

At the beginning of June, I issued a “sell sign” on Minnesota based on their 26-12 streak, but OPS numbers that were in the bottom half of the league.  The Twins are still mired in the bottom 20% of OPS batting and pitching.  As expected, it has resulted in a recent 5-10 mark in which they plated only 37 runs with a .223 BA.  In spite of that recent record, the Twins are still 23-14 at home for the season, tied for the best home field record with Toronto and Houston.  Those numbers complete what is a strong home/road dichotomy in this series.  Also working in our favor is today’s starter, Milone.  Milone is 3-1 for the year with a 3.67 ERA.  More impressive is the fact that in his last 3 starts, Milone has a 2.37 ERA with 13/2 K/BB.  In April, Milone worked 7 2/3 scoreless IP vs. the Pale Hose in a 6-0 victory.

This play has a lot going for it!  Though it is not easy to back a Twins team who is outperforming their numbers, one cannot deny the HUGE home/road dichotomy of this matchup or the obvious edges we have on the mound with Milone vs. Danks.   

MLB Picks: Take Minnesota Twins at Bet365

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