Monday's MLB Picks For Marlins vs. LA Dodgers Focus On Dog Value

Monday, April 25, 2016 5:00 PM GMT

Here is a betting preview of tonight's series opener between the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday at Coors Field, So read on to profit from the free MLB pick offered.

Miami Marlins
Miami will open a series against the LA Dodgers tonight in Marlins manager Don Mattingly’s return to face his former team for the first time after he was the skipper of the LA Dodgers for five seasons from 2011-2015. The Marlins bring some positive momentum into this game after a 5-4 win against San Francisco on Sunday and so do the Dodgers who rallied to beat the Rockies 12-10 in a wild one on Sunday at Coors Field. Which team will be our MLB Pick here?

Wei-Yin Chen gets the start for Miami and the lefty from Taiwan has pitched two solid starts in a row despite being saddled with no decisions in both of them. He’s allowed 5 runs in 13.1 innings of work in his last two starts combined against Washington and Atlanta. Chen has faced the Dodgers just once previously back in 2013 and had a good outing holding LA to just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings.

Chen’s ERA for the season is 4.91 but his FIP and xFIP both sit just above 3 which indicate he is throwing well. Chen has seen an uptick in his ground ball rate as well as his swinging strike rate by opposing hitters which all point to signs of him being a bit of an undervalued commodity at this stage of the season.


L.A. Dodgers
On the flip side, Ross Stripling will get the nod for the LA Dodgers and while his season stats reflect well on him with Stripling surrendered 3 runs or less in each of his first three starts, the advanced numbers clearly indicate he is not pitching as well as his 2.65 ERA shows. He is averaging 3.7 walks per 9 innings his strikeout rate along with his swinging strike rate point to the fact he is pitching to contact and not getting many swings and misses.

He’s also been bailed out at times in each of his starts by the fact hitters have hit some solid line drives off him but his defenders in the outfield have been in the right place at the right time to turn singles and doubles into loud fly outs. Stripling only lasted 3.2 innings in his most recent start against Atlanta allowing 3 runs on 6 hits and I think he is a pitcher that is likely to continue to regress rather than improve in the next few starts. 

Both bullpens have some concerns at the back end in terms of freshness and availability as both closers worked on Sunday but Wei-Yin Chen has pitched deeper into games in his last two starts than Ross Stripling so the edge could go to Miami in terms of limiting how much their taxed bullpen is used in tonight’s game.

 

Recommendation
The LA Dodgers are expected to rest Chase Utley and Adrian Gonzalez in tonight’s game which could take a bite out of their lineup. I think Wei-Yin Chen has a bit more upside at the moment than Ross Stripling and even though the Dodgers are the better overall squad right now, I believe we have some value at an underdog price on the MLB Odds for tonight on the Marlins to open up this series with a win so I will recommend a wager on Miami tonight at +109 which you can find at Heritage Sports.

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Free MLB Pick:  Marlins +109
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage