Monday Player Prop Picks: Don't Expect Much from Jays' Donaldson

josh donaldson

Monday, July 3, 2017 6:21 PM GMT

We lost our one and only play on Sunday Night Baseball thanks to Bryce Harper and the Nats beating up on the Cardinals. However, Monday’s slate brings us some nice value from Bovada sportsbook. 

Season MLB Props Record: 10-13 (-3.85 units)

Who Will Record More Runs, Hits & RBIs: Blackmon vs. Cozart

Both Charlie Blackmon and Zack Cozart are having fantastic seasons, but up against one another tonight Blackmon has a distinct advantage in the battle for runs, hits and RBIs.

Cozart has only played in two games since returning from the disabled list. Meanwhile Blackmon owns a .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season -- Cincinnati starts righty Luis Castillo -- and a .365 BABIP. He does strikeout more against righties, but he also puts up more power. He has a .266-isolated power against righties and 13 of his 17 homers have come against them.

There is also Coors Field to think about. Obviously all hitters get a boost in the altitude in Denver. However, Blackmon is a machine at home and the altitude isn’t the only reason. He has a .509 wOBA at home compared to .307 on the road, and at home against righties hit wOBA goes up even more to .521.

Blackmon has 116 runs, hits and RBIs at home this season out of just 154 plate appearances. For those not that versed in math, that’s an average of a run, hit or RBI every 0.75 plate appearances at home. Assuming he gets four plate appearances tonight, I really like his chances of outplaying Cozart at the plate.

Free MLB Pick: Blackmon -175Best Lines Offered Both: Bovada Josh Donaldson O/U 2 Runs, Hits & RBIs

Donaldson’s hot start to the season has cooled off and tonight he has another tough AL East pitching matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees’ righty has not been great this season, but Donaldson has also had very little success against him during his career.

Over 24 career plate appearances against Tanaka, Donaldson has just a .143 batting average. He only has three hits against him, but one of them was a homer. However, tonight on the road, it is a nice spot to take the 'under' on Donaldson. He has been better on the road this season, but the sample size is so small it’s hard to trust the splits at only 145 at-bats for him this season.

The two have yet to face one another this season, but while the Jays got Tanaka for four runs in their first meeting this season, Tanaka pitched better in June. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, and for Donaldson tonight I see him falling under 2 runs, hits and RBIs.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 2 (-105)