Momentum Mismatch on the Boards as Astros & Mariners Meet: Get our Free MLB Picks Here

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 19, 2015 4:11 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 19, 2015 4:11 PM UTC

MLB odds makers opened the Astros vs. Mariners line close to a PK, but early betting action has already set the road team as significant favorites. Find out how we recommend placing your picks.

Houston Astros (McCullers) (-110) vs. Seattle Mariners (Elias) 10:10 ET
The Houston Astros travel from Colorado to Seattle for the first of a 3-game weekend set.  The Astros are clearly the hotter team with 5 straight wins, including a 4-game sweep of the Rockies.  The Astros also have a strong history in this series, a huge edge at the plate and by far the better current hitting form than Seattle.  With an edge on the mound as well, this is a solid MLB pick based on Momentum Mismatch at a value price.

The recent Seattle hitting slump has dropped Seattle to .670 OPS, that's good for No. 27 in MLB.  Seattle has scored 3 or fewer runs in 19 of 22 recent games.  The Mariners are 6-13 of late, plating only 53 total runs.  Included in that is a 2-9 slide on this field, where they have scored just 18 runs.  This is a replay of a pitching matchup played last weekend in Oakland.  It resulted in a 13-0 Houston win, when Elias allowed 8 runs in 3 1/3 IP.  Now, Elias returns home where revenge will not come easily.  For, Seattle is 0-4 in Elias home starts where he has posted a 1.34 WHIP.  We want no part of either Elias or the Seattle Mariners in this matchup.

After struggling through years of ineptitude, Houston is finally playing to their potential.  They are a team that has been built from within with huge slugging potential and a pitching staff that has gelled sooner than expected.  Compared to the .670 OPS batting number of Seattle, the Houston team has a .738 OPS (good for No. 5 in the League).  A whopping 97 homeruns is 13 more than the next most proficient team.  Following a mini dip, Houston has turned the corner again to post a 6-1 recent record in which they have scored 54 runs.  Their 40-28 record is 9 1/2 games better than Seattle.  These teams have already played 10 games this season with the Astros holding an 8-2 series advantage.  In those games, they have won the battle of the scoreboard by a count of 64-34.  In addition, Houston has won 6 of 8 games recently.  One of the most pleasant surprises in the Houston rotation has been the work of McCullers.  Though the Astros have won only 2 of his 5 starts, he has a 2.33 ERA and even better 0.90 WHIP, which has translated into a 0.85 road WHIP.

This is truly a Momentum Mismatch at a value price.  We have the better team, the hotter team and the best of it on the mound.  With MLB odds opening close to a pick 'em type game, the Houston Astros are your late night delight!

MLB Picks: Take Houston Astros -124 at The Greek

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