Momentum & Great Pitcher Make Royals Our MLB Pick Against Tigers

David Lawrence

Saturday, May 2, 2015 11:25 AM GMT

The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are engaged in an already fascinating race in the American League Central. How will game three of this four-game weekend MLB betting series play out at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City?

The Detroit Tigers Can Win Because…
They have the much better starting pitcher in this matchup in terms of career-long success. David Price might have a 3.48 ERA right now (which isn’t that bad), but his career ERA is 3.21. Kansas City starter Edinson Volquez has a career ERA of 4.37, over a full run higher. Price’s ERA is also the product of one really bad game this season. He gave up eight runs on 10 hits in 2 1/3 innings against the New York Yankees earlier in April. Price has a stumbling block in the form of the Yankees. He faced a series of 30 batters in his last two outings against the Yankees (bridging those two starts). In those 30 batters, spread out over those two starts, Price retired only seven of them. He just can’t figure out the Yankees. Other than that, he’s fine. He’s been in command in almost all of his non-Yankee starts. He labored somewhat against Minnesota on Monday, but he still powered through the start and gave up only three runs while taking the Tigers into the seventh inning with a lead. Price is a workhorse, and after a game in which he wasn’t fully on top of his game, Price should be able to be even more effective against Kansas City.

What should also help Detroit in this game is that Miguel Cabrera is hitting the ball well, so keep this in mind when looking at the MLB betting odds. He hit two homers on Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins. This comes after a red-hot weekend series against the Cleveland Indians. If Cabrera is hitting and seeing the ball well, Victor Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez should also get good pitches to hit.

 

The Kansas City Royals Can Win Because…
They have the pitcher who is hotter at the moment. Edinson Volquez isn’t as big a name as David Price, but he’s been the much better pitcher this year, chiefly because he’s avoided the big inning. Volquez has a 1.91 ERA so far this season. He’s given up more than one earned run in only one of his four starts. He’s been extremely consistent and has not displayed the volatility many other pitchers exhibit in the month of April.

Volquez did well in his one start last season against Detroit, as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Volquez went six innings and gave up only two runs on five hits. He contained Detroit’s bats, and that’s exactly what he’ll try to do again in this game. Kansas City smacked around Detroit in game one of this series on Thursday. The Royals, who did not do well against Detroit head-to-head last season, might now be waking up to the idea that they’re better than the Tigers. This could motivate them to play really well on Saturday.

 

Outlook
The pros of Price are hard to bet against but Volquez is such a hot pitcher right now that Price will probably have to dominate to win. On top of that, the Royals have won four of five and have some momentum. Take Kansas City with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Kansas City -115 at The Greek