Momentum Give Underdog Reds A Lot Of Value In Matchup vs. Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds

Charles Stark

Sunday, August 21, 2016 2:14 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 21, 2016 2:14 PM UTC

The Reds that  right now are playing playoff-type baseball, despite being out of the postseason. Can Cinci continue their winning streak? Our handicapper provides his MLB Pick.

Oddsmakers have come out making Los Angeles around a -128 favorite across the board while putting Cincinnati at around +118. For my MLB pick, I'm going to take a shot with the Reds at that number like at Pinnacle as they have a good home starter today and are rolling. The Dodgers are in the thick of the playoff hunt but this could be a tough spot for them to pick up another crucial win.


Los Angeles Dodgers
Julio Urias takes the mound for the Dodgers with a 4.41 ERA and 1.59 whip along with a ton of hype for the future. He has pitched really well since the All-Star break posting a 3.07 ERA overall but right now he is facing a Cincinnati team that has been hitting the ball equally well. It makes sense for the Dodgers to be the favorite in this spot considering not only their record but also the fact that the Dodgers have won the last six times he has started on the mound. On closer look though he did not really get out of any of those games unscathed and although the Reds are not an offensive powerhouse, as mentioned they are on quite a streak. 

At the plate, Los Angeles statistically remain subpar looking at their offense across the board. The Dodgers rank 17th in runs scored per game, 18th in OPS, and 19th in batting average. Interestingly their averages go up on the road but I still think they will have a bit of trouble scoring today against a very good home pitcher for the Reds. Recently they have been hot and cold at the plate scoring one run, then eight runs, then just three runs against the Pirates, and then in their series prior to this one scoring 15, seven, and four versus Philadelphia. Value wise they have not swung the bats very well in Cincinnati and I don't think things will get easier for them today.


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Cincinnati Reds
Anthony DeSclafani gets the start with a 3.10 ERA and 1.21 whip along with a 7-1 record on the season. In his last 10 starts, he has been really good hitting up at most five runs in just one start in which he gave up two home runs in San Francisco. Outside of that in his other nine starts the most he has given up is three total earned runs in an average of around six innings. At home, he has been lights out with a 2.12 ERA, 4-0 record, but surprisingly batters hitting a pretty solid .272 against him. 

The batting average is definitely a bit concerning but against the Dodgers he has consistently pitched well over the past few seasons posting a 2.37 ERA allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings against them. With the way Cincinnati has been rolling, I expect for him to come in and pitch with a lot of confidence today. At the plate overall Cincinnati ranks as one of the worst offenses in all baseball. That being said though they have been tearing the cover off the ball recently and in their current winning streak, they are averaging over five runs per game.

July record: 13-9
August record: 8-8
Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds +118
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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