MLB Worst Phillies Vs. AL-Best Astros? Easy Call

jose altuve

Kevin Stott

Monday, July 24, 2017 12:00 AM GMT

Brad Peacock and the road-savvy Astros head to Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia on Monday to start a three-game series against Vince Velasquez and the Phillies. Let’s dissect and come up with a Side and Totals pick.

MLB Odds Overview

Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (SportsNet-SW, CSN-Philadelphia, 7:05 pm ET): Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is the site of Game 1 in this 3-game Interleague Series on Monday night between Brad Peacock and the Astros and Vince Velasquez and the Phillies. Offshore sportsbooks currently have opened Houston as-160 (BetOnline) favorites over Philadelphia (+150) with the Total opening at 9½u (-120, BetOnline) with the Run Line market seeing the Astros -1½ +115 and host Philadelphia +1½ runs at -110 (BetOnline).

 

Houston Astros

José Altuve and the Astros (5/1 to win World Series, BetOnline) have been extremely dominant on the Road (35-11) this MLB Regular Season and Houston (574 RF-403 RA, +171 RD) is still neck-and-neck with the Dodgers (501 RF-328 RA, +173) for both the best MLB Record and Run Differential. On Sunday in Game 3 at Baltimore (HOU -130, 10½u -130, BetOnline), Houston (+20.0 units, #1 MLB) and Manager AJ Hinch went with a Starting Lineup of: 2B Altuve, RF Reddick, 3B Yuli Gurriel, DH Gattis, SS Gonzalez, C McCann, 3B Bregman, LF Aoki, CF Marsnick with Lance McCullers Jr. getting the start.  The Astros are without star SS Carlos Correa, who is out 6-8 weeks after undergoing successful thumb surgery on Wednesday.

Carlos Beltrán and Houston (+160 to win AL, Bovada) are 7-1 their L8 Monday games, 5-0 L5 vs. NL East, 19-7 L26 Road Interleague games, 38-14 L52 on the Road but 1-5 L6 Game 1’s of a series. The Under is 19-7-2 L18 Astros Monday games but the Over was 7-0-1 L8 Houston Road games overall into Sunday’s Game 3 at Baltimore.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

The anemic Phillies (5,000/1 to win World Series, 5Dimes) and Manager Pete Mackanin have actually been on a mini-roll, W3 heading to Saturday night at Milwaukee -- they lost -- but Philadelphia (-20.8 units, #28 MLB) has the 2nd-worst Run Differential (-80) in the NL (379 RF-459 RA) and has the worst Record in MLB (33-62, .347, 24½ in NL East) and should probably not be bet on, but bet against in a Moneyline sport like MLB. On Sunday afternoon the Phillies (PHI -115, 9o -120, BetOnline), put out a Starting Lineup of: 2B Hernández, SS Galvis, LF Kendrick, 3B Franco, RF Williams, CF Herrera, 1B Joseph, C Knapp with Jerad Eickhoff getting the baseball for Philadelphia (2-6 L8 vs. AL West).

Philadelphia (17-26 at Home) are 17-35 L52 Home games, 15-37 L52 vs. Teams with Winning Percentages Above .600, 15-42 L57 overall but 8-0 the L8 against the astros here in the City of Brotherly Love and Humidity. The Over is 32-15-5 L52 Phillies Interleague games while the Under is 36-14-3 L53 against the AL West.

 

Philadelphia Weather, Trends, Analysis & Picks

The TWC Weather Forecast for Philadelphia on Monday night is currently calling for Scattered Thunderstorms (40% Chance Rain), a Low near 70° with NNE Winds of 5-10 mph. This will be the first time Velasquez (2-5, 5.14 ERA) faces his former team and the second for the RHP following a 10-day spell on the DL while Astros RHP Probable Starter Peacock (8-1, 2.49 ERA) has W6 of his L8 Starts with an impressive 2.70 ERA in those games and has been great on the Road (.211 Opponents BA, 2.62 ERA on Road) and allowed just 1 ER in 7.0 IP vs. the Mariners.

With the Astros (3-7 L10 meetings) such an Over team on the Road -- (15, 18, 9, 14, 11, 14, 20, 10, 7, 16, 21, 6, 12, 12) L14 into Sunday (13.2 rpg) at Baltimore -- and Houston a perfect 7-0 vs the NL this season in IL play, backing that and the Offensive visitors and the Over (5-2-1 L8 in Philadelphia, 5-2-1 L8 series overall) to try to win equal, moderate amounts looks like the logical approach.

Predicted Final Score: Astros 7, Phillies 4MLB Free Picks: Astros -160, 'Over' 9.5Best Lines Offered: BetOnline

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