We split a pair of MLB Prop Picks on Tuesday night, cashing on our guy Charlie Blackmon, but whiffing on Justin Upton over Gerardo Parra. With a slew of day games, the nightcap is limited, but there are a few great prop offerings from Bovada sportsbook.
With the shorter slate Wednesday evening thanks to a multitude of day games, the options for the evening are somewhat limited. There are some really nice player-versus-player props, including one with David Freese versus Ben Zobrist.
However, upon further examination, some of these are pretty sharp offerings by Bovada. At first glance they seem like viable value plays, until you start to look at a few of them a little deeper. They’re either coin-flips, or deceptively dangerous.
However, one play that is not that tonight is Steve Souza’s total for runs, hits and RBI. While it is only at 2, he and the Rays have to face off against the Royals and Jason Vargas tonight, which will be no easy task.
Batting average is a misleading stat, and Souza’s L/R splits tell the story. He is hitting virtually the same against righties and lefties this season via batting average, but if you take into account weighted on base percentage, (wOBA) the tune changes.
Souza’s wOBA drops over 50 points against lefties this year, and last season it was more of the same.
Souza had a .282 wOBA over 126 plate appearances against left-handers in 2016, and he struck-out in 38 percent of those appearances. It’s gotten a little better this season with his on-base percentage and BABIP rising against southpaws, but his power drops a lot this season against them, and that could be his Achilles heel tonight.
Vargas has limited righties to a .312 wOBA this season over 488 total batters faced. The veteran still knows how to get it done against players of opposite handedness, and even though he has struggled a lot over the second half, a lot of his recent losses have come via no run support. The Royals can’t score right now at all, but I don’t think the Rays’ Souza will do much either.Free MLB Pick: UNDER 2 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Bovada