MLB Total Picks of the Day: Predicting a Pair of High Scoring Affairs to Soar Over the Total

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, October 1, 2015 2:05 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015 2:05 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant discusses totals on Thursday’s Twins vs. Indians & Marlins vs. Rays. Join us in examining our betting preview and pair of over/under plays.

Twins (Duffy) vs. Indians (Bauer) 7:10 PM ET
Tyler Duffy has pitched very well of late, but I can’t ignore his numbers on the road. Duffy has seen four of five road starts go over the total this year while posting a lofty 4.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in those outings.

Trevor Bauer has posted a sizable 6.02 ERA, and allowed 16 home runs during just 86 2/3 innings pitched at Progressive Field in Cleveland this season. Bauer has displayed horrible form in his last three starts overall, compiling a mammoth 10.33 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, and walked 9 in 11 1/3 innings. The Indians have gone 46-29 (61.3%) over the total at home in 2015.

These teams have seen eight of their nine meetings in Cleveland go over the total this year. I like the game to produce plenty of runs, and one of my MLB picks today will reflect that prediction. According to current MLB betting odds they offer the best combination of number and price for this wager.
MLB Pick: Play the Twins & Indians OVER 7.5 (-110) at The Greek


Marlins (Fernandez) vs. Rays (Odorizzi) 7:10 PM ET
Jose Fernandez has been nowhere near dominant on the road than he’s been at home during his young career. Fernandez is coming off a very shaky outing in his previous start against a weak hitting Atlanta team. Ironically that outing took place at home, and he allowed 6 earned runs on 9 hits in 5.0 innings of work. The Marlins have averaged 5.4 runs per game, hit .310 as a team, and amassed an impressive .829 OPS during their previous seven contests.

Jake Odorizzi has displayed less than stellar form during his previous three starts. During that stretch, Odorizzi had a 6.46 ERA, and all three games went over the total. The Rays hurler has seen each of his last three starts at home go over the total, and had an unimpressive 6.46 ERA in those outings. He’s made 2 career starts versus Miami, and posted a massive 10.00 ERA. Both of those appearances have come since 2013.

There’s betting value on going over the total in this game, and especially considering how low of a number we’re being asked to surpass.
MLB Pick: Play the Marlins & Rays OVER 6.5 (-110) at Heritage

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