MLB Total Lock: Astros vs. Twins Will Slide Under 8

Charles Stark

Friday, August 28, 2015 11:58 AM GMT

With a good home and away MLB betting angle on the starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins and a left-handed ace starting for the Astros, I'm going to back under the total today.

Astros vs. Twins MLB Odds
MLB odds makers came out with a total of 8 for this game which makes perfect sense considering the recent offensive output by both these teams. Still, it looks like odds makers are trying to get money going on the over with the higher juice on the under. Considering that fact, you might want to wait until first pitch to get better money odds because it looks to me like this line is going to drop to 7.5. Right now the best odds across the board on the under are at -120 like you can find at Pinnacle Sports.

 

Houston Astros
Scott Kazmir takes the mound for Houston and comes in with a 2.39 ERA, 1.12 whip, 131 strikeouts, and a 7-8 record combined with Oakland and Houston. While he has been with the Astros he has been really sharp except for one bad outing against Tampa Bay where he allowed six earned runs off a nine hits in just five innings. Besides that in his other five starts he only allowed four earned runs total and that was against some of the better hitting teams in the league in the Royals, Rangers, and Dodgers. I think he is catching Minnesota and feel this could be a backing the Astros despite the fact they are a very good home hitting team.

Houston ranks 11th in runs scored per game at 4.32, 11th in OPS at .727, and last in the major leagues in team batting average hitting .241. Although they had a lot of production their past three games against the Yankees they are facing a really good home pitcher today in Gibson. Also, both their OPS and batting average drop considerably on the road.

Check Out Charles's MLB Picks for Cardinals vs. Giants here

Minnesota Twins
Kyle Gibson gets the start for Minnesota with a 3.96 ERA, 1.33 whip, 107 strikeouts, and in 8-9 record. Getting back to what drew me to the under on this game is the fact that Gibson is two different pitchers pitching at home compared to away. While he has had some rough outings in his last 10 games they have mostly been on the road where his ERA is 4.90, but at home it is a solid 3.12. In his last five home starts he had one tough outing against the Yankees but in his other four starts he only allowed six total earned runs against the Mariners, and against three of the best hitting teams in the American League in the Rangers, Tigers, and Orioles.

Minnesota ranks 10th in runs scored per game at 4.36, 20th in OPS at .705, and 21st in team batting average hitting .250. All of those statistics go up at home where they are very productive offensive team. Still, they are facing and extremely good pitcher and they are just coming back from a long road trip. So far on the season they rank in the middle of the American League against left-handers ranking ninth in batting average at .258 and seventh in OPS at .714.

I think we have the odds makers in a tough spot where they simply cannot make this total lower than what it is considering the recent production of these teams. There are some nice angles for MLB picks on the under in this spot when we break down the numbers, back the under with confidence.

Free MLB Picks: Under 8