MLB Top Totals Picks: Home Plate Umpire Leads to a Pair of ‘Over’ Plays

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 20, 2015 1:31 PM GMT

Our baseball handicapper shares his top MLB total picks. Don’t make a move on the Oakland/Houston or San Diego/Colorado games today without first reading this compelling betting preview article.

A’s (Brooks) vs. Astros (McHugh) 2:10 PM ET
Aaron Brooks has been awful in his previous three starts, posting a monster 12.41 ERA, 2.12 WHIP, and all three games went over the total. Oakland has allowed 7.1 runs per game, and opponents have amassed a large .904 OPS against them during their previous seven contests.

Colin McHugh has struggled in his last two starts, evidenced by a mammoth 10.00 ERA in those outings. Houston has allowed 6.6 runs per game and opposing hitters have a sizable .551 slugging percentage against them during their previous seven outings.

The two starting pitchers for Sunday squared off against one another just eleven days ago in Oakland. Both hurlers were less than impressive in those starts. Brooks allowed 5 earned runs on 8 hits in only 4.0 innings, and McHugh was touched for 5 earned runs on 6 hits while surrendering 2 home runs in 5 1/3. These teams have combined to hit 8 home runs during the first two games of this current series.

I like this game to be a high scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Sunday. According to MLB betting odds at 5Dimes, they provide us with the cheapest price pertaining to this wager.

MLB Pick: Play the A’s and Astros over 8.5 (-105).

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Padres (Shields) vs. Rockies (Kendrick) 4:10 PM ET
James Shields has seen each of his previous nine starts go over the total. The veteran right-hander has also gone 9-1 over the total in his ten day game starts this season. He’s faced the Rockies four times in 2015, and has a lofty 5.24 ERA in addition to an 1.84 WHIP during those outings. The Padres are 23-7 (76.7%) over the total in 2015 when Shields is their starting pitcher. San Diego will be facing a right-handed starting pitcher on Sunday, and they’ve gone 68-39 (63.6%) over the total this year in that role. The Padres have gone over the total in seven of their previous eight games oveall.

Kyle Kendrick has made three starts against San Diego in 2015, and had a lousy 6.88 ERA while allowing 5 home runs in 17.0 innings during those outings. The Rockies right-hander has allowed an average of 1 home run per 4.5 innings pitched this season, and that includes 1 per 3.5 innings at home. Colorado averages 5.5 runs per game and has a stellar .843 OPS at Coors Field this year.

The scheduled home plate umpire for this game today is Gabe Morales. Since 2013, games that Morales was calling balls and strikes have gone 37-20 (64.9%) over the total. Granted this is a very high total (11.0). However, consider the fact that since 2013, any game with a total of 10.0 or more in September has seen 82 of 122 (67.2%) go over the number.

MLB Pick: Play the Padres and Rockies over 11.0 (-107) at Pinnacle.

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