For the first time since we started these MLB Props several weeks ago, we struck out and had a 0-for type of night. However, we are still up in the black on the season and I am going to turn things around on Thursday night’s short slate with a couple more props from Bovada.
Season MLB Props Record: 8-6 (+1.90 units)
Justin Bour O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI
Marlins' Justin Bour has picked up right where he left off since he’s returned to the field. He smashed a grand slam earlier in the week and even though he is 0-for-7 in his last two games, since coming off the disabled list Bour is still hitting 6-for-19 in his last six games.
Now Bour and the Marlins are up against a struggling Jake Arrieta and I think Bour gets back in the scorecard tonight. Arrieta is allowing lefties to post a juicy .375 wOBA this year and he has given up 7 homers and 23 runs to left-handers over 147 of them faced so far this season. He is giving up a hit and/or run to one in every three lefties this season.
Enter Bour who owns a .273 career average against right-handers and you have a nice spot to make some profit tonight on over 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI. Bour’s price on the over is at +115 right now and considering he is playing at home, I think that helps more than hurts. Obviously a home run would be night, but Bour has the ability to get 3 runs, hits and RBI tonight without leaving the yard.
Bour has only faced Arrieta once in his career, but that isn’t enough to scare me away from this one.Free MLB Pick: OVER 2 ½ (+115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Most runs hits and RBI – Matt Adams vs. Brandon Crawford
I have no idea why the Cardinals traded Matt Adams. They need a big bat in their lineup and had a pretty good one in Adams, who they traded to the Braves and of course Big City is crushing it.
Brandon Crawford is also playing well, but there’s a chance he falls southward in the lineup tonight against Jaime Garcia and while there’s a chance he doesn’t play at all, that would simply result in a push for us.
However, assuming both are starting, I love Adams to win the battle of runs, hits and RBI against a guy like Crawford. With Jaime Garcia on the hill, Crawford could struggle some at the dish tonight. Plus, Garcia does not allow home runs to lefties. He has allowed only 16 home runs to left-handers in his career! That’s over 853 total lefty batters faced over his career and he allows a home run about every 53 plate appearances.
Crawford isn’t that bad against lefties in his career, but Adams is so lethal against righties. He’s hitting .312 against them this season with 10 homers in 153 plate appearances. If he connects with one, there isn’t much chance of Crawford being able to out do him in this prop tonight.Free MLB Pick: Matt Adams (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada