We absolutely crushed the sportsbooks on Friday night with our two player prop picks, but now with one lone game on the Sunday night slate, we have to be careful after our pair of winners. I’m releasing just one play for tonight, but I think it could hold a ton of value if this guy is in the starting lineup tonight.
This is a balls to the wall play tonight for several reasons, but the main one is part of Gregorious’ improvements this season has been his hitting against left-handed pitches.
Earlier in his career, Gregorious struggled when hitting against southpaws. For his career he is just a .255 hitter against lefties and even though he has improved that to .284 this season, it’s over just 104 plate appearances, so the sample size is still small.
This doesn’t mean this is a safe play tonight. On contrary it’s more of a long shot than anything.
However, Gregorious’ power drops significantly against lefties. Only two of his 18 home runs have come off of a left-hander this season, which drops his isolated power to just .074 against them. His wOBA also drops pretty significantly to .290 against southpaws compared to .379 against righties.
The odds on Gregorious not getting a hit could cash us a winning ticket of +160 tonight. With Chris Sale on the mound for the Red Sox, I like our chances of shutting down the Yankees’ young shortstop.
Sale has been a monster in 2017. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .238 wOBA and a batting average of just .198. Sale is not your typical run-of-the-mill left-hander either. He may be the best or at worst second or third best lefty in the game right now. He is striking out nearly one out of three lefties he faces and retiring eight out of every 10 this season.
There is also the added benefit that these two have yet to face one another in their careers. However, if Gregorious is in the lineup tonight, I love our chances of making away with a +160 winning ticket if he can remain hitless.Free MLB Prop Pick: No +160Best Line Offered: at Bovada