MLB Run-Line Pick: Dodgers Home Field Superiority vs. Reds Road Woes

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, August 13, 2015 3:09 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015 3:09 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant examines the game between the Reds and Dodgers on Friday. Join us in reading this insightful betting preview article which culminates with a free pick.

Reds and Dodgers meet for First Time in 2015
Los Angeles and Cincinnati open a four game series at Dodger Stadium on Thursday. The opening pitch is scheduled to be at 10:10 PM ET. This will be the first meeting of the season between these National League clubs. Since 2013, the teams have evenly split their fourteen encounters, and those games went 10-3-1 under the total. Cincinnati will go with 24 year old right-hander Keyvius Sampson on the mound tonight. The Dodgers counter with veteran righty Matt Latos.

 

Home and Away Splits
There’s undoubtedly a huge disparity between these teams home and away splits as they apply to tonight’s game. The Reds have gone a poor 22-36 (.379) on the road this season. Contrarily, the Dodgers are an outstanding 39-19 (.672) at home in 2015. Since 2013, the Dodgers have won five of seven at home versus Cincinnati.

 

Beware of Sampson’s Control Issues
Keyvius Sampson will be making just his third career MLB start on Thusday. He’s accounted himself very well in the first two, evidenced by compiling a stellar 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, when examining his minor league numbers, one thing that jumped right off the screen was his walks allowed to innings pitched ratio. Since 2009, Sampson has issued 302 walks in 607.0 innings pitched during his minor league career. The Reds young hurler started 2015 at AA Pensacola and then was promoted to AAA Louisville. Although he dominated during eight starts in AA ball, that wasn’t the case in an identical amounts of starts for Louisville. Sampson posted a lofty 5.08 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his eight starts in the AAA International League prior being called up. Between both minor league stops this season, Sampson walked 46 in 82 2/3 innings, and that equates to 5 base on balls per 9.0 innings pitched. Eventually that will come up to bite him in the majors if and when it rears its ugly head.

 

Latos due to get well on Thursday
Matt Latos has endured a bit of a disappointing year thus far. Ironically, Latos was traded to Miami last December from Cincinnati where he began his MLB career. He was then subsequently traded to Los Angeles by Miami in late July. The Dodgers were looking to bolster the back end of their starting rotation with by obtaining Latos. He’s gone a combined 7-11 in his team starts this season with an unimpressive 4.67 ERA. However, he has a bone to pick with his former team (Reds) tonight, and will be facing an opponent which had a dismal .215 team batting average over their previous seven games.

 

Final Analysis
The Dodgers are coming off a 3-0 win over Washington on Wednesday despite amassing just 4 hits in that game. That’s not all bad news since they’ve gone 19-2 since 2014 following a game in which they had 4 hits or less. The Dodgers had a huge +3.0 run per game differential in those twenty-one contests. The Reds stumble into this series having gone 1-3 in the last four, and 2-6 in their previous eight games. I like the Dodgers to win convincingly for one of my MLB picks on Thursday. Sportsbetting.com provides me with the best value regarding this specific wager.

MLB Pick: Play the Dodgers -1.5 (+135) on the run-line at Sportsbetting.

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