We cashed both of our MLB props last time out to make us 3-1 on the season, and while the night slate of MLB is a bit small, there is still loads of MLB Odds value on these props.
Max Scherzer O/U 8.5 strikeouts
Last time out for Max Scherzer he put up 10 strikeouts for us in a winning prop ticket with MLB Odds of nine. Now here we are five days later as the Nationals and Scherzer are set to take on the Mets. Scherzer now has a strikeout total of 8 ½ for this game tonight, but even against New York, I see similar results tonight in regards to his strikeouts.
Scherzer has had double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four games, and he could easily put up double figures again tonight against New York. The Mets have the seventh worst strikeout rate against right-handers this season at 22.7, and considering Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 32.7 percent, and a rate of 37.4 against right-handers, the Mets are going to go down swinging a lot tonight.
On top of that, the Mets have been slumping at the plate. David Wright may be lost for the season, Curtis Granderson is banged up and outside of Yoenis Cespedes, there isn’t a lot about this Mets lineup that scares you right now. That makes for an even better play on Scherzer’s strikeouts tonight. Scherzer has 10 strikeouts the last time he faced the Mets in May, and I expect at least nine or 10 more tonight.
MLB Pick: OVER 8.5 (-115)
Daniel Murphy O/U 2.5 Hits, runs and RBI’s
In the same game you have one of the league’s best hitters in Daniel Murphy. The Nats’ second baseman is having a fantastic year hitting .349, and with a wOBA of better than .400. Tonight the Nats are going up against right-hander, Logan Verrett, and Murphy has dominated right-handed pitching this season.
On the year through 203 at bats, Murphy is hitting .365 with a .429 wOBA against right-handers, which ranks him top five in the league against pitchers who are righties. Furthermore, Murphy’s power jumps from a .140 Isolated Power against lefties to .256 against righties, and his slugging rate goes up almost 200 points. He also owns a hard hit rate that is 10 points higher against righties.
To sum things up, Murphy is a great play tonight. He would have been a great play at less than even money too, but Bovada sportsbook is gifting us odds for Murphy tonight. At +140 for the over, Murphy is my favorite play of the night. He is going to rake against Verrett tonight who owns a 4.14 ERA on the season. While right-handers have had more success against him over his career, lefties own nearly a 41 percent fly ball rate against him. If Murphy gets ahold of one, one swing could cash us a +140 MLB pick tonight at Bovada.
MLB Pick: OVER 2.5 (+140)