MLB Pitcher Update & Picks For Saturday's Matchups

John Ryan

Friday, May 2, 2014 2:38 PM UTC

Friday, May. 2, 2014 2:38 PM UTC

Join us as we analyze the upcoming MLB games D-Backs vs. Padres and Phillies vs. Nationals on Saturday and their pitcher line-up. Despite McCarthy's stats, he's coming in hot after a win over Phillies and Burnett looks to capitalize from the Padres' weak offense.

Winning Pick
Record now stands at 1-1 0.0 units made after the Dodgers and Mr. Haren easily defeated the Minnesota Twins Thursday afternoon.

The Friday play outlined in Thursday's article is valid as outlined. Take the 'over' in the Dodger-Marlins game. I am seeing lines of 7 1/2 +100 for an even money wager. I don't see this line moving from this level so getting the 'even' money line is a solid wager.  

Here are a few game situations that support and reinforce the validity of this 'over' wager. Miami is a solid 23-9 'over' (+13.8 Units) in home games when facing struggling fielding teams averaging 0.75+ errors/game spanning the last three seasons; 20-10 'over' (+10.4 Units) when facing an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last two seasons; 20-9 'over' (+11.4 Units) in home games facing an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last two seasons; 11-3 'over' (+8.1 Units) at home when the total is 7.5 or less this season.  


Saturday 5 Star Titan Plays
I like the Phillies boxed with starter A.J. Burnett as they host the Division rival Washington Nationals set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The Phillies signed Mr. Burnett to a one-year contract paying him close to $15M. At first it appeared the Phillies were reaching to get another arm into this aging rotation, but so far Mr. Burnett has been an elite starter. He has posted a 2.15 ERA with 1.27 WHIP in six starts spanning 37 2/3 innings of work. He picked up his first win of 2014 on Sunday holding the Diamondbacks scoreless for eight innings allowing just five hits while striking out eight and walking none.

This is nothing short of remarkable as he has posted an 0.83 ERA over his last three starts since being diagnosed with a inguinal hernia, that will require off-season surgery to correct. The injury appears to be a very minor imposition for Mr. Burnett and I strongly believe he will get the win in this game against a very weak hitting Nationals' lineup.  

For a second 5 Star Titan play, I like playing the Arizona Diamondbacks boxed with starter Brandon McCarthy as they take on the San Diego Padres set to start at 8:40 PM ET. The flash stats for McCarthy are very weak, but he is coming off an excellent start against Philadelphia. He threw 7 innings, allowed 7 hits and 2 ER while walking just one batter and striking out 12 batters. Moreover, 17 of his 23 ER allowed occurred in three starts. 

His greatest trouble has been falling behind in the count. This is certainly a negative situation for all pitchers at any level of baseball. The saying goes that the best pitch in baseball is 'strike one' and McCarthy is dominating after an 0-1 count allowing a 0.175 batting average. However, when his first pitch is a ball, batters are hitting him at a 0.444 clip. After 2-1 count, batters are hitting 0.500. So, I feel very confident that after his strong 12K performance against Philadelphia, Mr. McCarthy will be very strong in this start as well.  So, despite the overall inconsistencies, he certainly appears to have gotten back his dominating form. I am willing to back him in my MLB picks, in what will be a nice juicy 'dog' line.

Free MLB Picks: Diamondbacks with McCarthy and Phillies with Burnett.

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