MLB Pitcher Report: Will One-Sided Action Continue with These Pitchers?

Doug Upstone

Friday, July 31, 2015 1:15 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 1:15 PM UTC

Upon closer inspection of the sportsbooks betting odds, we uncovered three matchups on the Friday board which have been one-way action and wondered if that would continue tonight.

Here we are looking at two teams fighting for a division title with one clearing having the others number. A potential playoff club is stumbling frequently against a division rival who is going nowhere and two other squads who have played lower scoring contests this season and frequently at one particular park the past few years.

We will investigate how the starting pitchers might help shape the final results of tonight's tilts and determine what might be best to use for MLB picks and see if I can improve on recent 20-10 record.


Nationals vs. Mets: Washington Tries to Build Lead in the Big Apple
The New York Mets have made a series of moves to close the gap against Washington in the NL East, while the Nationals have largely stood pat, believing just having a contingent of players coming off the DL is the same as adding new players.

Nine days ago Washington won a home series over the Mets and come into tonight's contest up four games in the loss column. New York is still in the chase mostly because they have played so well at Citi Field where they are 35-17 (+14.9 units). However, when facing the Nationals at home, it is Washington who have felt right at home.

The Nats are 19-5 at Citi Field the last few years and a portion of this successful record has come from tonight's starter Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.83 ERA), who's 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA in nine career road starts against the Mets. The left-hander will take on Matt Harvey (9-7, 3.16), who has been almost unhittable at home with 1.33 ERA in his last four home starts.

The original MLB odds had Washington at +125 and most books reviewed now have them under +110 (Wagerweb at +114) and as much as we like Harvey, if the game is close late as I expect, advantage Nationals with their bullpen and the confidence they have over the Metropolitans.

Slight Advantage - Gonzalez and Washington


Pirates vs. Reds: Cincinnati Might be Moving on but they are Stealing Wins from Pirates
Players are not supposed to think about what happened in the past and focus on the next game, yet you have to wonder what Pittsburgh players are thinking being five games behind St. Louis in NL East battle, knowing they are 2-8 against Cincinnati.

It happens every year, some playoff team or one trying to become one has fits with an inferior opponent and every matchup is a struggle. The Reds have begun the process of rebuilding but when they face Pittsburgh, you swear this club plays like the Big Red Machine from the 1970's.

Last night was a perfect example as Cincinnati rolled 15-5 and Brandon Phillips became the first major leaguer with four hits, two homers, seven RBI's (a career high) and two stolen bases in a game since - runs batted in - became an official statistic in 1920 according to Stats Inc.

Rookie Michael Lorenzen (3-5, 4.58) will climb the hill for Cincy as a +115 underdog and his first major league victory came against, who else, Pittsburgh. The Reds will take on Jeff Locke (5-6, 4.15), whom they hit hard in their last five tries, leaving him with a 5.18 ERA.

With Cincinnati having won three in a row over the Cardinals (twice) and Pirates in the last three days as underdogs, know this, they are 10-1 at home off two upset wins versus division rivals as an underdog of +130 or higher since 1997.

Advantage - Lorenzen and Cincinnati

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Rays vs. Red Sox: Runs Could Be Scares in Boston
With the Red Sox in the tank and Tom Brady not eligible to play football until October, New England area fans are forlorn. Given the recent history of Boston and Tampa Bay, Red Sox fans are not to be jumping out of their seats this evening.

These division partners are 7-2 UNDER thus far in 2015 and going back three years, they are 17-7 UNDER at Fenway Park. There is a good chance Erasmo Ramirez (8-4, 3.74) will not surrender many runs as he has yielded two runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts and the Rays bullpen has an ERA under 2.00 in last five contests.

Boston rookie hurler Eduardo Rodriguez (6-3, 4.26) has frequently been very good or real bad on occasion as many baseball handicappers are aware. At this point anything is possible with the left-hander, however we do find Tampa Bay has enjoyed more success against lefties averaging 4.1 runs scored compared 3.4 RPG facing those who throw right-handed.

With the odds maker posting a 8.5 total and neither offense clicking, for sports picks we will go UNDER the number with Tampa Bay 13-4 UNDER in away outings after scoring two runs or less this season.

Advantage - UNDER

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