MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Tigers Betting Preview for 4-Game Series

Darin Zank

Monday, April 20, 2015 1:00 PM GMT

New York got this series to even with a 5-2 victory Tuesday night, and is an underdog again for Wednesday's Game 3. Which way do we we go with our free pick for tonight?

 

23rd APR
Yankees vs. Tigers Game 4

By: Ron Patrick

 

Yanks-Tigers Game 3 Recap
New York, as a +170 post-time underdog on Wednesday's betting line, put up six runs in a snowy first inning off Detroit starter David Price, and two more in the second, on its way to a 13-4 romp.

In his last two starts against New York Price has been nuked for 16 runs over just 4 1/3 innings. He may want to find another approach for the next time he faces the Yankees.

New York starter Adam Warren walked four of the first five batters he faced Wednesday, and gave up four runs in the bottom of the first, but settled down after that, and ended up pitching into the sixth, allowing just those four runs.

With Mark Teixeira's three-run homer in the seventh Wednesday the Yankees are now tied for the Major League lead in dingers this season with 21. They're also now 11-4 on the OVER/UNDERS.

New York OF Brett Gardner sat out Wednesday's game against the lefty, but he'll probably play today.

We backed Detroit Wednesday on the run line; as it turned out, while we lost our bet, we also saved about 70 bucks by eschewing the moneyline.

Check out which teams have been a total surprise and which ones...not that much

Game 4 Betting Odds
As of early Thursday morning the best price on the MLB odds we could find on Detroit with Anibal Sanchez was the +104 offered at Pinnacle, while New York and Masahiro Tanaka could be found at -107 at Heritage.

And most books were listing the total on today's game at eight runs.

 

Thursday's Starters
Sanchez is one-for-three on quality starts this season. First, he held Minnesota scoreless through 6 2/3 innings of an 11-0 Detroit victory. But then he gave up five runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh, and last Saturday he got bombed for nine runs in less than four innings of a 12-3 loss to the White Sox.

All three of those games played OVER.

Sanchez last started against the Yankees back in August of 2013, when he held them to two runs through seven innings of a 9-3 Detroit victory.

Tanaka is also one-for-three on quality starts this season. Through his first two outings against Toronto and Boston Tanaka gave up seven earned runs in nine innings; New York split those two games. But last time out he held Tampa scoreless on two hits through seven innings, walking none while whiffing eight, in a 9-0 Yankees victory.

Two of those starts played OVER the totals.

This will be Tanaka's first-ever start against the Tigers.

 

Game 4 Free Pick
We didn't plan it this way but we've taken Detroit in every game in this series so far, and despite Sanchez' recent performance we think the value MLB pick resides with the Tigers.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit +104 at Heritage

 

22nd APR
Yankees vs. Tigers Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Yanks-Tigers Game 2 Recap
New York received a quality start from Nathan Eovaldi and broke open a close game with three runs in the top of the seventh, pulling out a 5-2 victory. The Yanks, to our betting dismay, won as +105 post-time underdogs Tuesday night, and the game stayed UNDER its MLB odds total of 8.5 runs.

Detroit scored once in the bottom of the ninth, and had the bases loaded with two outs, but New York closer Andrew Miller, after walking two guys, got the final out for his fifth save of the season.

Detroit can't complain about what it got from starter Kyle Lobstein, who only gave up the one run through six innings, although he did walk four guys. But it was the bullpen that let the Tigers down, giving up four runs on five hits and five walks in three innings of work.

 

Yanks-Tigers Game 3 Betting Odds
Most of Wednesday's MLB betting market opened Detroit and David Price at around -200 over New York and Adam Warren, but in the early action many books dropped that price as much as a quarter. As of early Wednesday morning the best price we could find on the Tigers was the -173 offered at Pinnacle, while the Yanks could be gotten at +166 at WagerWeb.

 

Wednesday's Starters
Price owns three good outings so far this season. He began with 8 2/3 shutout innings in a 4-0 win over Minnesota; then eleven days ago he gave up three unearned runs through 5 2/3 innings of a 9-6 victory at Cleveland; and last Friday he held the White Sox to one run and four hits through eight innings, with two walks and nine strikeouts, in a 2-1 win.

On the season Price has permitted 18 base-runners (hits + walks) in 22 1/3 innings of work.

Last year Price, splitting time with the Rays and Tigers, started five times against the divisional-rival Yanks; three of those starts went well, while two didn't. Overall Price gave up 19 ER and 42 hits through 29 2/3 innings. His teams managed to win three of those games, while three of those games played OVER.

Warren owns one good outing and one not-so-good this year. Eleven days ago he held Boston to one earned run through 5 1/3 innings of a game the Yanks eventually lost 8-4, then last Friday he gave up four runs in four innings at Tampa in a game New York won 5-4.

This will be Warren's first-ever start against Detroit, although he did make three appearances in relief against the Tigers last year, giving up a run and two hits through 3 1/3 innings.

 

Wednesday's Batting Splits
New York owns a .348 team OBP and a .419 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season.

Detroit owns a .367 OBP and a .472 slugging percentage against righties this season.

 

Game 3 Free Pick
New York bombed Price the last time they met, but our guess is that was an aberration. We expect a quality effort from the big lefty Wednesday night. But tonight's price, while less than it was to begin with, is still a bit steep. So we'll take a chance and take the Tigers on the run line for our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit +125 on the run line at The Greek

 

 

21st APR
Yankees vs. Tigers Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Yanks-Tigers Game 1 Recap
Detroit rallied for two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to claim a tough 2-1 victory Monday night. The Tigers, to our delight, won as -120 post-time favorites on Monday's MLB betting odds, and the game never came close to its total of nine runs.

Mark Teixeira gave New York an early 1-0 lead with a solo homer in the top of the second, and things stayed that way until the seventh, when JD Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes came up with back-to-back two-out, run-scoring base hits to give Detroit the lead. The Tigers bullpen then got the last five outs to secure the W.

Detroit's Alfredo Simon, who's becoming one of our favorite unsung starting pitchers, held the Yankees to that one run and seven hits through 7 1/3 innings, walking none while whiffing seven. Meanwhile, CC Sabathia came up with his best outing of the season, allowing just those two runs and seven hits through eight innings, with three walks and five whiffs.

The key play of the game may have come when Tiger Raja Davis tagged up from first to second on a fly out in that seventh-inning rally. He then scored the tying run on Martinez' two-out hit. Also, Detroit reliever Joba Chamberlain, the former Yankee, came in with two on and one out in the top of the eighth and got Jacoby Ellsbury to ground into an inning-ending double play.

On a personnel note New York's Carlos Beltran returned to the lineup after missing recent action with an illness; he went 0-for-three at the plate with two strikeouts.

 

Game 2 Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best price we could find on Detroit and Kyle Lobstein was the -122 offered at Pinnacle, while New York and Nathan Eovaldi could be found getting +115 at WagerWeb. If interested in MLB picks on the total, most books were listing the total on tonight's game at 8.5.

 

Tuesday's Starters
Lefty Lobstein will be making his second start of this season, in place of the injured Justin Verlander. Nine days ago he gave up three runs and eight hits through five innings of an 8-5 Detroit victory at Cleveland.

Lobstein has started once in his career against New York, last August, when he held the Yanks to one earned run on four hits through six innings of a 3-2 Tigers win.

Righty Eovaldi will be making his third start of this season; so far he's 0-for-two on quality starts. Eleven days ago he gave up three runs and eight hits through 5 1/3 innings of that epic 6-5, 19-inning loss to Boston, and last Wednesday he gave up two runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Baltimore.

Eovaldi actually left that game last week against the Orioles with a 3-2 lead, but the bullpen gave it away.

Eovaldi has started once in his career against Detroit, back in 2013 when, as a Marlin, he held the Tigers to one run through six innings of a 2-1 Miami victory.

 

Game 2 Free Pick
Detroit owns the best record in the Majors at the moment, and tonight's price is very reasonable. So we'll stick with the Tigers for Tuesday night.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit -115 at Pinnacle

 

20th APR
Yankees vs. Tigers Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

Yanks-Tigers Game 1 Betting Odds
Monday's MLB betting odds market opened this game with Detroit and Simon favored by anywhere from -134 to -150 over New York and Sabathia. In the early betting most books moved their lines closer to that lower figure. As of early Monday morning the best price we could find on the Tigers was the -125 offered at BookMaker, while the Yanks could be found getting +120 at WagerWeb.

Also, the OVER/UNDER for Monday night sat at 8.5 runs.

 

Series Set-Up
Detroit just took two of three games from the White Sox over the weekend, winning Friday 2-1, losing Saturday 12-3 but winning Sunday 9-1. So the Tigers have won all four series so far this season, and yet only lead Kansas City by one game in the AL Central.

Newcomer Yoenis Cespedes got Detroit off to a roaring start Sunday with a grand slam in the first inning, then added a two-run shot in the third, giving starter Shane Greene a comfortable cushion to work with.

New York, meanwhile, just swept three games at Tampa over the weekend, winning Friday 5-4, Saturday 9-0 and Sunday 5-3. So the Yanks are back at the .500 mark at 6-6.

They've also played four OVERS in a row.

Over the weekend Alex Rodriguez had four hits, three for extra bases, drew four walks, knocked in four runs and scored six runs. So he's been New York's hottest hitter.

Last year New York took the season series four games to three, with the totals skewing toward the UNDERS by a 6-1 margin, as those games averaged less than six runs per game.

 

Monday's Starters
Simon, brought in from Cincinnati over the off-season to help replace Scherzer and Porcello in the Detroit rotation, is making his new employers happy. Ten days ago he gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-4 win at Cleveland, and last Wednesday he held Pittsburgh scoreless on two hits through eight innings, with zero walks, in a 1-0 victory.

Simon took a 5-0 lead into the sixth inning in his season debut against the Indians, then, perhaps pitching to the situation, gave up three runs. Then, pitching in a tight game against the Pirates, he allowed just one runner to reach second base and faced just two batters over the minimum.

Last year, pitching for the Reds, Simon started once against the Yankees, giving up four runs – two earned – and five hits through five innings of a 7-1 Cincy loss.

Sabathia, who's trying to bounce back after missing most of last season with a knee injury, has struggled so far. Eleven days ago he gave up four ER and eight hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 loss to Toronto, and last Tuesday he gave up four runs and seven hits in seven innings of a 4-3 loss at Baltimore.

Sabathia last started against Detroit more than two years ago, back in April of 2013, when he threw seven scoreless innings in a 7-0 victory. But suddenly that seems like a long time ago.

 

Key Stats
New York owns a .310 team OBP this season against right-handed pitching.

Detroit owns a .367 OBP this season against left-handed pitching.

 

Betting Trends
New York is 10-2 on the OVERS this season.

Detroit is 6-3 on the OVERS over its last nine games.

 

Injury Update
New York OF Carlos Beltran has missed recent action with an illness, but might play tonight. Meanwhile, Detroit DH Victor Martinez is dealing with a sore knee, and sat out Friday's game, although he's been in the lineup the last two days.

 

Game 1 Free Pick
We backed Simon several times last year when he was with Cincinnati, and with some decent success. Meanwhile, Sabathia hasn't shown us much reason to back him so far this year. So we will place our MLB picks on the Tigers to take this series opener.

Free MLB Pick: Detroit -108 at BookMaker