MLB Picks Yankees vs. Red Sox: Quality Pitching Ensures 'Under' is Your Best Bet

Willie Bee

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 11:26 AM GMT

Game 2 of the Yankees-Red Sox series finds New York favored -135 on the ML.  Can Boston beat the odds for a second consecutive win against their top rivals?

Boston reliever Jean Machi kept the game interesting in the ninth inning of Monday's series opener against New York, his wild performance certainly robbing Red Sox fans of any confidence in their team's ability to win close games late. But he wasn't wild enough for the Yankees to capitalize, and Boston held on for a 4-3 win.

The old rivals once again prime-time treatment on television with the MLB Network broadcasting tonight's 7:10 PM (ET) from Fenway Park. New York sends Michael Pineda to the mound as the favorite Yankees are -130 according to SBR's live baseball odds. Boston counters with Rick Porcello, the 9 run total carrying extra juice on the 'under.'

 

Porcello Facing Yanks For 1st Time In Boston Uniform
Inconsistency has plagued Pineda in 2015, though a forearm injury can be blamed for some of that. The beefy Dominican came off the disabled list last week to continue a 3-game losing streak that began shortly after the All-Star Game, failing to make it out of the fifth against the Astros having already allowed five runs and six hits. The showing left Pineda with a 7.87 ERA over his last three starts.

Just before the break, Pineda had one of his better games of the campaign against the Red Sox in Boston. The righthander worked into the seventh at Fenway Park, Boston's only run coming on a Mookie Betts homer. He has two quality starts in four tries in Boston, and two really ugly ones for a 5.30 ERA on this mound.

Porcello, meanwhile, is coming off one of this better outings of the year in what was also his first assignment following a DL stint. The New Jersey native tossed seven shutout frames in Chicago last Wednesday, limiting the White Sox to five hits while whiffing five along the way. Tuesday will be his first taste of this rivalry having missed the Yankees each of the previous four series. Porcello had decent success against the Yankees in a Tigers uniform, Detroit winning five of his nine starts (3.90 ERA). Jacoby Ellsbury has been Porcello's krypton over the years, hitting .647 (11-17) with four homers.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Donning the mask for the umpire crew tonight should be Ron Kulpa. The 16-year veteran out of St. Louis has not leaned one way or another as far as totals go (11-12-1 O/U/P), and is catching both Pineda and Porcello for a second time in 2015. His call of Porcello's start at Fenway in mid-June stayed 'under' while a Pineda home assignment in May went 'over' the MLB odds. Home teams are 16-8 when Kulpa has the plate, but only 1-2 as underdogs.

It's going to be about 10º cooler for the start of tonight's tilt with only a slight southeast to south breeze (out to left). I'm riding another 'under' at Fenway for my Free MLB pick in this matchup.

MLB Pick: Yankees-Red Sox Under 9 (-115) @ 5Dime

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