MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Rangers Series Report

Darin Zank

Monday, July 22, 2013 1:17 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 22, 2013 1:17 PM GMT

There's a mounting degree of urgency in the air as the Rangers host the Yankees for a four-game series at the Ballpark, starting Monday night 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN. How should this series be tackled from a betting standpoint?
25th July
Thursday's Series Closer

By: Ron Patrick

 

Read our Daily MLB Betting Lines & Odds Report for Thursday's baseball game breakdown!

 Texas took Game 3 of this series Wednesday night 3-1, getting a quality start from newcomer Matt Garza and solo homers from AJ Pierzynski and David Murphy.

The Rangers won as -165 favorites Wednesday, and the game, like Games 1 and 2 of this series, played ‘Under’ its listed MLB odds total.

Also, much to our delight, Murphy's homer in the bottom of the eighth gave Texas a cover on the run line.

So the Rangers will go for the series victory, while New York will try to salvage a split, when the teams meet for the series finale Thursday afternoon at the Ballpark (2:05 p.m. ET).

Thursday's Betting Odds

As of Thursday morning, most baseball sportsbooks were listing Texas and Derek Holland at around -150 over New York and Hiroki Kuroda, with an Over/Under of 8.5. The Rangers could also be gotten at around +125 on the run line at various betting outlets.

[gameodds]3/240046/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Read today's Daily Pitching Report for a breakdown of the day's pitching picks.

Holland (8-5, 3.10) is a solid 13-for-20 on quality starts this season, and four for his last five. Most recently he held Baltimore to three runs in eight innings, and over his last five starts he's allowed just nine ER in 36 2/3 innings.

For the season Holland has given up 130 hits in 133 2/3 innings, walked 39 and struck out 127.

Texas is 13-7 in Holland's starts this year.

In his one start this year against New York Holland tossed a beauty, throwing a two-hit complete-game shut-out in a 2-0 Rangers victory June 27 up in the Bronx.

On the other side of Thursday's pitching match-up Kuroda (9-6, 2.65) is 12-for-20 on quality starts this season, and five for his last seven. Last time out he held Boston to two runs through seven innings, and over his last seven outings he's allowed more than two runs just once.

On the season Kuroda has given up 106 hits in 125 2/3 innings, walked 25 and whiffed 88.

The Yanks are 11-9 in Kuroda's starts this season, but with a little better run support they would be much better.

In his one start this year against Texas Kuroda gave up two ER and five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-3 Yankees victory back on June 25.

Our Take on Thursday's Game

Both starting pitchers have been tough this season, but we like Kuroda a little better than Holland. Plus, New York is getting an underdog price; so we'll go with the Yanks as part of our free MLB picks for Thursday.

MLB Pick: Take the Yankees at the +135 offered at Bet365 (or better odds, if you can find them!)

How did this series work for your sports picks? Share your outcome on our Major League baseball forum!

 

24th July
Wednesday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

Head over to our Daily MLB Betting Lines & Odds Report for a breakdown on Wednesday's baseball games!

New York stole Game 2 of this series Tuesday night, getting two runs in the top of the ninth, with help from a Joe Nathan wild pitch, to turn a 4-3 deficit into a 5-4 victory.

The Yankees won as +150 underdogs on Tuesday's MLB betting board, and the game, to our great relief, just sneaked 'Under' its total of 9.5.

Glad we got down early on that one.

Newly acquired Matt Garza will make his debut for Texas Wednesday night (8:05 p.m. ET) against Andy Pettitte for New York.

Wednesday's Betting Lines

As of Wednesday morning most baseball sportsbooks were chalking the Rangers at around -160 over the Yanks, with a total of 9.5. Texas could also be gotten at around +120 giving the run and a half on the run line at various betting outlets.

[gameodds]3/239880/?r-1=349-43-192-999997/us[/gameodds]

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Read today's Daily Pitching Breakdown for an analysis of the day's pitching picks.

Garza (6-1, 3.17 for the Cubs this season) just came over to the American League in a trade with the Cubbies Monday. So far this season Garza is 7-for-11 on quality starts, and working on a string of six in a row. Last time out he held St. Louis to two runs through 6 2/3 innings, and over his last six outings he's allowed six ER in 43 2/3 innings.

On the season Garza has permitted 61 hits in 71 innings, walked 20 and struck out 62.

The Cubs, a team that's 10 games under .500 overall, went 8-3 in Garza's starts this year.

This will be Garza's first start against the Yankees since 2010, when he was toiling for Tampa Bay.

Pettitte (7-7, 4.47), by our strict standards, is just 6-for-17 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last seven. Most recently he gave up four ER in 6 1/3 innings vs. Boston, and over his last seven outings he's allowed 26 ER and 55 hits in 44 innings.

For the season Pettitte has given up 114 hits in 104 2/3 innings, walked 28 and whiffed 75.

New York is 9-8 in Pettitte's starts this season.

In his one start this year against Texas Pettitte allowed three ER in six innings of an 8-5 Yankees loss back on June 26 at the Stadium.

Our Take on Wednesday's Game

Garza has been very good lately for the Cubs, while Pettitte looks like he might finally be running out of gas. So we're leaning toward the Rangers. But that price is a bit steep, so we'll gamble a little and take Texas on the run line for our free MLB picks today Wednesday.

MLB Pick: Take the Rangers -1.5 runs at +120 at William Hill

Remember to check out this report again tomorrow for updated odds, pitching match-ups and more free sports picks as this series concludes.

 

23rd July
Tuesday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

For a breakdown of today's important games, read Tuesday's MLB Betting Lines & Odds Report!

Texas grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 3-0 as Yu Darvish and three relievers held New York to just three hits, all singles.

Ivan Nova was a hard-luck loser Monday, allowing three runs in seven innings for his third-straight quality start. He's next expected to start Saturday in NY vs. a hot Tampa team and Matt Moore.

The Rangers, to our chagrin, won as -190 favorites on Monday's MLB betting lines, and the game never threatened its total of 8.5.

The O/Us are now 16-32 in games played at the Ballpark in Arlington this season.

New York has now been held to two runs or fewer seven times in its last 12 games, and has hit just four homers over its last 16 games.

The Rangers, meanwhile, haven't exactly been ripping it either; they've been held to three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games.

Texas leads this season series three games to one.

For the second day in a row the Rangers will take a guy off the DL to start when they send Alexi Ogando to the mound Tuesday night (8:05 p.m. ET) against Phil Hughes for New York.

Tuesday's Betting Odds

As of Tuesday morning most sportsbooks were chalking Texas at around -165 over New York, with an 'Over'/'Under' of nine. The Rangers could also be gotten at around +105 on the run line at various baseball betting outlets.

[gameodds]3/239839/?r-1=349-43-192-999997/us[/gameodds]

 Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

Read today's Daily Pitching Breakdown for an analysis of the day's choice pitchers.

Ogando (4-2, 2.93) was going pretty good earlier this year, with four quality starts in 10 tries, and the Rangers had won seven of his 10 starts. Then he went on the DL with soreness in his throwing shoulder. But after giving up two runs in seven innings of a rehab start last week at Triple-A Round Rock he'll get the call Tuesday night for Texas.
 
On the season, Ogando has given up 46 hits in 55 1/3 innings, walked 22 and struck out 43.
 
This will be Ogando's first start against the Yankees since June of 2011.
 
Hughes is 9-for-18 on quality starts this season, but thanks in part to some poor run support New York is only 6-12 in games he's started. Last time out Hughes gave up four runs and struck out 10 in 7 1/3 innings vs. Minnesota, and over his last four starts he's allowed nine ER through 26 1/3 innings.

For the season, Big Phil has permitted 106 hits, including 18 homers, in 102 1/3 innings, walked 26 and whiffed 88.

In his one start this year vs. Texas, Hughes was tough, allowing just two runs and five hits in eight innings of a 2-0 Yankees loss back on June 27 at the Stadium.

The 'Over'/'Under's are a combined 6-20 in games started by Ogando and Hughes this season.

Our Take on Tuesday's Game

We're not sure who's going to win this game. We'd lean toward the Rangers, but we don't like the price. So instead, we'll look to the total for our free MLB picks, and go with the 'Under' in game that matches two teams struggling with the bats as of late.

Pick: Take the 'Under' 9.5 at -125 at William Hill

Remember to check back at this page for updated odds, pitching match-ups and more free sports picks as this series plays out.

 

22nd July
Monday Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

Even as the Texas Rangers got off to an excellent start to this season we wondered just how good they really were. Are they proving the validity of our doubts with their recent slide?

The same could almost be said about the New York Yankees, who have done a pretty good job of playing with a makeshift lineup basically all season, but find themselves falling behind in the American League playoff races.

Check out our Daily Baseball Betting Lines Report for a breakdown of today's games!

Monday's Yankees-Rangers Betting Lines

Most sportsbooks we consulted Monday morning opened Texas and Yu Darvish at around -185 over New York and Ivan Nova, with a total of 8.5. Many books then also bumped the Rangers to upwards of -195 and -200.

Also, The Greek was chalking Texas at a heavy -240 to win this series, with the Yanks getting +200 as the dogs.

Yankees-Rangers Series Set-Up

Texas just got swept three games in Baltimore over the weekend, falling Sunday 4-2. So the Rangers have lost seven of their last eight games, and have been held to two runs or fewer in six of those outings.

At 54-44 Texas sits in second place in the AL West, three games behind first-place Oakland.

The Rangers are actually lucky they haven't fallen further behind; the A's themselves have lost four of their last seven games.

New York, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games in Boston over the weekend, losing late Sunday night 8-7 in 11 innings. So the Yanks have lost seven of its last 11.

At 52-46 NY sits in fourth place in the AL East, seven games back of division-leading Boston.

But Texas is also just a game and half back of the Orioles in the battle for the second American League

Wild-card race, with the Yanks 3.5 games off the pace.

In the first meeting this season between these two teams, Texas took two of three games from the Yanks at the Stadium back in June. Two of those three games played 'Under' on the totals.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Don't forget to also look at today's Daily Pitching Report!

Darvish (8-4, 3.02) is coming off the DL (strained back) to make his first start since July 6. So far this season Darvish is 10-for-18 on quality starts, but only one for his last four. Last time out he gave up five runs in six innings vs. Houston, and over his last four outings he's allowed 12 earned runs and 35 base runners (hits + walks) in 24 innings.

 On the season Darvish has given up just 84 hits in 119 1/3 innings, walked 41 and struck out 157.

But while Texas won eight of Darvish's first nine starts this year, it has lost seven of his last nine outings.

In his one start this season vs. New York, Darvish allowed three ER and seven hits in a 4-3 Rangers loss back on June 25. Last year, in his only start vs. the Yanks, Darvish threw 8 1/3 innings of seven-hit, shut-out ball, striking out 10, in a 2-0 Texas victory. And that came against a much tougher lineup than the one he'll face tonight.

Nova (4-2, 3.63) has spent a little time on the DL himself this season, making just seven starts so far, just two of them of the “quality” kind. But those two quality outings have both come in his last two trips to the mound. Most recently Nova held Kansas City to one run and five hits through eight innings, and just before that he threw a complete-game three-hitter, walking one while whiffing 11 in beating Baltimore 3-2.

For the season Nova has allowed 51 hits in 52 innings, walked 16 and struck out 54.

This will be Nova's first start vs. Texas since he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-6 Yankees loss back in August of last season. But it should be noted that two guys who are no longer with the Rangers, Michael Young and Josh Hamilton, combined for four hits, two walks and five runs that night.

As far as the bullpens go for this series Texas ranks sixth in the Majors with a 2.99 ERA and has converted 31 of 35 save opportunities, while New York ranks 10th with a 3.19 ERA and has made good on 33 of 37 save opportunities.

Yanks-Rangers, Battle of the Bats

Texas ranks 13th in the Majors in scoring at 4.3 runs per game, ninth in team OPS at .738 and sixth in homers with 113.

New York, meanwhile, ranks 21st in scoring at just under four RPG, 27th in OPS at .683 and 21st in homers with 88.

Yanks-Rangers Betting Trends

These two teams are a combined 74-110 on the totals this season.

Also, the O/Us are 16-31 in games played at the Ballpark this year.

Yanks-Rangers Injury Update

New York is still playing without Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.

Texas, on the other hand, is relatively healthy, outside of having Lance Berkman on the DL, and not only does it get Darvish back, fellow starter Alexi Ogando is expected to come off the DL to start Tuesday.

Our Take on Monday's Game

Darvish may be on a short leash Monday night, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, considering how good the Texas bullpen is. On the other side of the equation Nova has been great over his last two starts. We'd give the Rangers the edge with the sticks, but they've had a helluva time recently scoring runs. So this looks like a game that doesn't deserve to be lined so steeply. And we much prefer going against the public steam. We'll tab New York as an underdog as part of Monday night's free MLB picks.

Pick: Take the Yanks at +170, offered at Bet365.

Remember to check back at this page for updated odds, pitching match-ups and more free sports picks as this series plays out.

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