MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Orioles Series Coverage

Willie Bee

Monday, September 9, 2013 1:04 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 9, 2013 1:04 PM GMT

You know SBR has you covered with previews and free MLB picks as the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees finish up their 4-game series at Camden Yards in Baltimore.
12th SEPT
Thursday's Game Four

By: Willie Bee

 

Check out Thursday's Baseball Odds & Betting Lines Report for more info on today's games!

 Thanks to victories by the Pirates and Red Sox on Wednesday, the AL Wild Card race is now officially on. Six teams are bunched within 4.5 games of each other for the two slots, and two will go head-to-head Thursday in the finale of a 4-game set in Baltimore between the Orioles and New York Yankees.

New York took its second straight from the Orioles last night, pushing the Yanks just ahead of the O's and only a game behind the Rays for the second wild card in the American League. The Yankees switched hurlers for Game 4 and will send Phil Hughes to the mound against Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen, delaying the MLB odds for the match. Adjusted baseball betting money lines have the Orioles priced as $1.50 chalk on Thursday with a 9 run total that is juiced to the ‘Over’.

Battered By Boston, Huff Eyes Rebound In Baltimore

New York's experiment with David Huff in the rotation lasted just one loop through the order when he was bombed last Saturday against the Red Sox, allowing nine runs and a pair of homers in a 13-9 setback. A day before that, Hughes made his lone relief appearance with Boston slapping him around for four runs in just a third of an inning.

Hughes faced the Orioles twice earlier this year, both New York losses with the righty combining for nine innings in the two assignments while surrendering seven runs along with five long balls. Including a start in last year's ALDS, the Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts vs. Baltimore.

Chen is coming off a nice performance vs. the White Sox last Saturday (6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K), a no-decision in an eventual 4-3 extra-inning triumph for the Orioles. He is seeing the Yankees for a third time this year, losing a 3-0 duel with Hiroki Kuroda in mid-April and taking another no-decision 11 days ago in New York, a game Baltimore rallied to pick up a 7-3 victory.

Behind The Plate, Mother Nature & a Pick

Jim Wolf completes a turn through the umpire rotation when he works the plate in Game 4. The California native has been an ‘Under’ bettors friend with a 4-11-1 O/U/P record this year, including the finale of the Dodgers-Reds series last weekend that failed to reach a short 6.5 run total.

Whether or not Mother Nature allows the final regular season game between the O's and Yanks is up in the air. There's a 40% chance of rain at game time, and the likelihood increases as the evening wears on. The two teams share an off day next Monday (September 16th) in case the umpires have to postpone or suspend this one.

If you think Chen is going to stifle New York hitters, then by all means make your play in the Birds. But all I see are runs and more runs in this one, therefore my free sports pick on the ‘Over’.

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MLB Pick: Bet the Yankees/Orioles game OVER 9 (-115) at William Hill

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11th SEPT
Wednesday's Game Three

By: Willie Bee

 

Should the New York Yankees fight their way into the postseason mix, they'll have GM Brian Cashman's deadline deal to bring Alfonso Soriano back to the Bronx to thank.  Soriano popped two homers Tuesday night, giving him 15 since rejoining the Yankees in July, and New York rallied past the Baltimore Orioles to even the set at a game apiece.

The victory snapped the Orioles' 6-game home win streak against New York, but Baltimore is favored to get right back in the win column Wednesday when the MLB odds list a -130 to -135 price on the Charm City crew.

The Game 3 mound duel begins with Andy Pettitte facing Scott Feldman, and scoreboard bettors are looking at a mix of 8.5 and 9 run totals for their wagering decision.

Pettitte Takes Another Crack At Win No. 20 Vs. O's

I have to admit that Pettitte has pitched better than I thought he would, and am most impressed that he already has 26 starts in the book after pegging him 20-22.  The old man has also deserved a better fate than no-decisions in his last two assignments, leaving the games with the lead only to see the New York relief corps implode.  New York had strung together four straight wins behind the southpaw before the losses.

One of those defeats came vs. the Orioles in New York to start September, Pettitte allowing two runs in six innings before exiting ahead 3-0.  Baltimore bashed its way to an eventual 7-3 triumph, spoiling my payday and Pettitte's shot at career win No. 20 vs. the Orioles.

Likewise, Feldman has performed better than I expected in 2013.  He's coming off a brilliant performance at Oriole Park, definitely his best outing in front of the Baltimore fans since arriving in a deal from the Cubs and his first career shutout to boot.  It did come against the impotent White Sox, not to mention Feldman's previous six home starts for the O's had him pitching to a 5.82 ERA with 15 BB in those 34 innings a big reason.

Behind The Plate, Mother Nature & A Pick

Jeff Nelson (15-16-1 O/U/P) has been streaky when calling balls and strikes this season, and enters Wednesday's tilt on a run to the low side of totals with four of his last five staying UNDER along with a push.  The Orioles have lost five of six with Nelson at the plate, including a 5-4 setback to the Red Sox in mid-June.

Stay on top of today's baseball betting by checking out our Baseball Odds & Betting Lines Report~

[gameodds]3/243031/?r-1=19-43-192/us[/gameodds]

It's going to be more of the same as far as the weather goes, even a little warmer today than the previous two days.  The forecast calls for 91º at the game's outset with a 6-9 mph SSE breeze (out to left-center).

I'm going to stick with the OVER once again for my free pick.

MLB pick: Yankees-Orioles Over 9 (+100) at William Hill

 

10th SEPT
Tuesday's Game Two

By: Willie Bee

 

Buck Showalter loves to get the best of the New York Yankees. Joe Girardi, who comes off as a whiner to yours truly when anything goes against the Yankees, would love nothing more than to even up this series with the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday. How are we approaching this game with our MLB picks?

The two managers got into a shouting match Monday when the Orioles fired the first salvo in this 4-game set with a 4-2 victory. Girardi accused Baltimore of stealing signs, or put another way, acknowledged that New York apparently has some easy signs to steal. Personally, I say let Buck and Joe duke it out under the grandstands like players, managers and umpires did 100 years ago when real men played baseball.

Miguel Gonzalez will try and give the O's a 2-0 lead in the set tonight when he takes the bump at Camden Yards. Baltimore is the small -120 or so favorite for the matchup against Ivan Nova and New York. A 9 run total carries extra juice on the UNDER.

[gameodds]3/242925/?r3=43-19-349-999994/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Off Tough Start, Nova Looks To Start New Streak

Nova labored through just four innings last Thursday vs. the Red Sox, needing 96 pitches to get 12 outs and surrendering three runs. He didn't figure in the decision, an eventual 9-8 loss for the Yankees that snapped a 6-game win streak for New York with Nova on the mound.

Consider that he needed only 104 pitches in his previous start to toss his first career shutout against these Orioles, the 2-0 victory capping a strong August with a 2.08 ERA. That was his second complete game of the season and his career, the other also coming vs. Baltimore at Yankee Stadium on July 5 in a 3-2 triumph with a season-high 11 strikeouts. 

Gonzalez started that July 5 contest for the O's and was in line for the victory before his bullpen blew a 2-1 lead. Tuesday is his fifth assignment vs. the Yankees this year, and three of the previous four have been quality efforts before getting pasted in New York in late-August. Baltimore is 1-3 in those outings, the only victory in his lone appearance against the Yanks at Camden Yards on May 21. Gonzalez worked seven that evening, allowing just two runs, and is 6-2 with a 3.75 ERA at home in 11 starts and one call from the 'pen. 

Behind The Plate, Mother Nature & A Pick

Crew chief Jim Joyce is up for plate duty this evening, and babysitting the two managers should they resort to more childish behavior. For the record, Joyce has ejected Showalter twice before (during his New York and Arizona managerial stints). Also for the record, Joyce has a strong UNDER tendency (8-20-3 O/U/P), going 0-9-2 O/U/P his last 11 plate assignments.

Another warm and muggy evening is in store for Charm City; first-pitch should find a 90º reading on the thermometer with a 9 mph south wind (out to center).

I'm going to look for the bats to return with a strong showing in Game 2, and make my sports pick once again on the OVER. 

MLB pick: Yankees-Orioles Over 9 (+105) at Bet365

 

9th SEPT
Monday's Series Opener

By: Willie Bee

 

Get an early edge in today's games! Check out our Daily Baseball Odds & Betting Lines Report!

I could be wrong, but methinks someone in the SBR offices really likes it when the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles get together. The longtime AL rivals are meeting for their sixth and final scheduled clash on the 2013 MLB betting calendar and part if not all of their previous five series have been on my assignment sheet.

There have certainly been plenty of reasons to follow the matchups in the most-played rivalry of the American League this year. The Yanks and O's crank up the 4-game set Monday just a half-game apart in a mad dash to try and secure a wild card slot for the postseason, those two positions currently held by the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays. Despite the importance of the series, none of the contests will be broadcast nationally, in part due to so much focus on the early days of the NFL and college football betting campaigns.

This series could easily spell defeat for one if not both teams as far as October baseball goes. Second place in the AL West, be that the A's or Rangers, looks very good for the postseason, leaving it to five others to fight for playoff scraps. Tampa Bay has nobody to blame but Tampa Bay for making this the tight race it has become. The Rays hold a 2-game lead over the Orioles and Indians for the second AL wild card, with the Yankees 2.5 back and Royals 3.5 behind.

Baltimore leads the season series vs. the Yankees eight games to seven, taking the last five at Oriole Park after dropping the first game of the first set on this diamond back in May. Game totals at Camden Yards have run 2-3-1 O/U/P in 2013, 6-3-1 the last 10 played on the Baltimore diamond.

Sabathia & Tillman Duel in Game 1

With most eyes on Monday Night Football, the contest that kicks off Monday's baseball card had me immediately thinking about the potential for offense as New York's CC Sabathia faces off against Chris Tillman and the Orioles. Overnight MLB odds sent the game out with a 9-run total juiced to the ‘Under’, along with Baltimore as $1.30 chalk. The only real movement in those numbers has been the O's being pushed up closer to -140 favorites.

Sabathia is a profitable 4-1 the last five starts, but that comes with two asterisks: 1) 5.58 ERA in that stretch, and; 2) New York was 0-6 before this spurt while CC had an even higher ERA.

The flip side is Sabathia has made a lot of money pitching against the Orioles during his career. New York backers are 3-1 (+2.0 units) vs. Baltimore in 2013 behind the chunky southpaw, the pinstripes backing him with plenty of offense in a July 30th matchup at Yankee Stadium, and 11-4 since 2010 when he faces Charm City's crew.

Facing New York has never been a pleasant experience for Tillman who owns a 7.43 career ERA against the Yanks. That number is even a little higher his last eight assignments (7.46), yet the O's have somehow managed to split the outcomes, 1-1 this season. Tillman punctuated a perfect 6-0 month of June with a solid performance against the Yankees in Baltimore, but got hammered six days later in the Bronx. Climbing the hill at Yankee Stadium has been particularly ugly; the Orioles are 1-4 in Tillman's last five New York assignments, his ERA cracking 10.

Remember the Sun Block, Oh Yeah, It's Also Hurricane Season

The weather looks fine for Monday's matchup, as well as for the Tuesday and Wednesday tilts. But the series finale on Thursday could be an issue, something we'll be sure to keep an eye on. Look for temps in the upper-70s when Game 1 gets underway, along with a 6-9 mph breeze from the SE (out to left).

Seven of the previous nine matchups on this field have seen at least nine runs score, with five of those reaching double digits. It may be contrary to the current pricing on the total, but I'm taking the ‘Over’ with my free Monday sports picks.

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MLB pick: Bet the Yankees/Orioles game OVER 8.5 runs at William Hill

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