MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Mets Subway Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, May 27, 2013 2:07 PM GMT

Join us for our winning odds analysis and free picks regarding this set of games between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets; the 'Subway Series' is underway!

Still playing without half their usual starting lineup the New York Yankees are still in first place in the AL East. They'll look to hold on to that perch when they begin this year's version of the Subway Series against the Mets with the first of two games at Citi Field starting Monday night (7:10 pm ET).

30 May
Thursday's Game Four

By: Ron Patrick

The Yankees have dominated their inter-league series with the Mets over recent seasons, but the Mets have a chance to pin a sweep on their Big Apple rivals, after taking Wednesday's game 9-4. 

The Mets jumped on Yankees starter David Phelps for five first-inning runs Wednesday and cruised home from there, winning as +165 MLB odds underdogs on Wednesday's MLB betting lines.

So the Mets have won $365 in this series, based on those theoretical $100 wagers on each game.

The Metros go for the sweep when the teams meet for Game 4 of this Subway Series Thursday evening at the Stadium (7 pm ET).

Thursday's Mets-Yanks Betting Odds

As of Thursday AM most baseball books were listing the Yankees with rookie Vidal Nuno at around -165 over the Mets with Dillon Gee, with the OVER/UNDER pegged at nine.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Nuno (1-1, 1.93), making his third career start Thursday, is coming off a quality start in which he held the Rays to two runs through six innings of a 4-3 Yankees victory last Saturday. So since joining the big club about a month ago Nuno has allowed just three ER through 14 innings of work.

Last year the lefty went 10-6 with a 2.54 ERA combined at A and AA ball, and earlier this Spring at Triple A Scranton he gave up just four ER through 23 innings, walking two while striking out 26.

This will be Nuno's first-ever appearance against the Mets.

Gee (2-6, 6.34) is just one-for-10 on quality starts this season, and that one QS came in his first start of the year. Most recently Gee gave up five runs in five innings vs. the Braves, and over his last three starts he's allowed 13 runs and 25 hits in 14 innings.

On the season Gee has given up 69 hits in 49 2/3 innings, walked 17 and struck out 37. The Mets somehow have managed to win four of Gee's 10 starts.

Gee started once last year against the Yankees, and didn't fare too badly, giving up three runs through seven innings of a 4-2 Mets loss.

[gameodds]3/228346/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Thursday's Game 

Can the the Yankees salvage one game in this series for us? We think so, based on the fact that Gee has been terrible this season, while Mets hitters haven't seen Nuno before. So we'll go with the Yanks for our free MLB pick for Thursday.  And with our penchant for taking risks we'll play the Bombers on the run line. 

Free Pick: Take the Yankees at the +120 on the run line offered at Bet 365

 

29 May
Wednesday's Game Three

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Mets pulled off a rare feat Tuesday night, rallying for two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Mariano Rivera to steal a 2-1 victory. 

So the Mets took both games of this inter-league series at Citi Field; the teams now move to Yankee Stadium for the final two games of this series Wednesday (7:10 pm ET) and Thursday. 

The Yankees have now been held to a total of nine runs over their last four games. 

Wednesday's Mets-Yanks Betting Odds 

Many baseball books we visited Wednesday morning opened the Yankees and David Phelps at around -165 over the Mets with Jeremy Hefner, then bumped that price as much as a dime, to the -175 range.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up 

Phelps (3-2, 3.96) is three for his last four on quality starts. Last time out he gave up four runs in 7 2/3 innings vs. Tampa, and over his last four outings he's allowed eight ER through 26 2/3 innings. For the season, which includes six relief appearances, Phelps has given up fewer hits, 44, than innings pitched, 50, walked 18 and struck out 49. 

The Yankees are 4-1 in games Phelps has started this year.

This will be Phelps' first-ever start against the Mets. 

Phelps got hit on his throwing arm by a line drive vs. the Rays last week, so we're left wondering (just a bit) whether that might have an effect on his performance Wednesday night.  

Hefner (0-5, 4.76) is four-for-nine on quality starts this season, but the Mets have managed to lose every one of his nine starts. Last time out he held the Braves to two ER in six innings, but New York lost 7-5. Earlier this year he held the Marlins to one run through six innings, the Dodgers to one run through seven innings and the Marlins to two runs through eight innings; But thanks to the bullpen and some poor run support Hefner remains winless. 

For the season Hefner has allowed fewer hits, 45, than innings pitched, 51, walked 20 and struck out 37. 

The OVER/UNDERS are 7-2 in Hefner's starts. 

This will be Hefner's first-ever start vs. the Yankees.

[gameodds]3/228252/43/us[/gameodds] 

Our Take on Wednesday's Game 

We give Phelps the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while Yanks hitters have struggled recently, maybe the change in venue will help. So we'll go with the Yankees for our free MLB picks for Wednesday. And since we like to gamble a little, we're going to play the home team on the run line. 

MLB Pick: Take the Bombers at the +122 on the run line offered at MatchBook.

Bettors should check back at these pages for updates, new pitching match-ups and more free picks as this Subway Series plays out.

 

28 May
Tuesday's Game Two

By: Ron Patrick

 

The Mets took the opener of this series Monday 2-1, getting a solo homer from David Wright, a quality performance from SP Jon Niese and a game-winning base hit in the bottom of the eighth from Daniel Murphy.

The loss dropped the Yankees to second place in the AL East, one game back of first-place Boston. The Metros won Monday as -105 favorites on the MLB odds, and the game stayed UNDER its total of seven.

Are all those injuries starting to finally catch up to the Bombers? The Yanks are 5-6 over their last 11 games, and have been held to three runs or fewer six times over that span. 

So the Yanks are 10 games above .500, the Mets 10 games under, as the teams head into Game 2 of this Subway Series Tuesday night (7:10 pm ET, ESPN).

Tuesday's Yanks-Mets Betting Odds 

Most baseball books we sampled Tuesday morning opened the Mets with Matt Harvey at around -130 over the Yankees with Hiroki Kuroda, then dropped that price about a nickel, to around -125.

[gameodds]3/228196/43/us[/gameodds]

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up 

Harvey (5-0, 1.93) is seven-for-ten on quality starts this season, but is coming off his worst outing of the season, in which he gave up four runs and nine hits in 6 1/3 innings vs. the Reds last Wednesday. But over his four starts previous to that he had allowed just five earned runs over 28 2/3 innings. 

For the season Harvey has permitted just 41 hits over 70 innings, walked 17 and struck out 74. The Mets, a team that's 10 games under .500 overall, are 7-3 in Harvey's starts this season. 

This will be Harvey's first-ever start against the Yankees.

Kuroda (6-3, 2.67) is six-for-ten on quality starts this season, but is also coming off his worst outing of the season, in which he gave up five runs and eight hits in just two innings vs. the Orioles last Wednesday. But over his four starts previous to that Kuroda had allowed just four ER over 29 2/3 innings.

On the season Kuroda has given up 50 hits in 60 2/3 innings, walked 14 and struck out 39. The Yankees are 7-3 in Kuroda's starts this year. 

Last year Kuroda started once against the Mets and threw a beauty, holding them scoreless on one hit through seven innings of a 9-1 Yanks victory in June. 

[gameodds]3/228346/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Tuesday's Game 

This is a tough one, because we're betting fans of both starting pitchers, and neither team is doing much with the sticks at the moment. But we still give the Yanks the edge in the match-up between bullpens, and they're getting the better price. So we'll go with the Bombers for our free MLB pick for Tuesday. 

Pick: Take the Yankees at the +118 offered at Bet 365 

 

27 May
Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

The teams then head to Yankee Stadium for games Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday's Yanks-Mets Betting Lines

As of Monday morning, most baseball books were listing the Yankees with Phil Hughes at around -115 over the Mets with lefty Jon Niese. The OVER/UNDER has been pegged at 7.5.

Yanks-Mets Series Set-Up

The Yanks just took two of three games at Tampa, missing out on the sweep with an 8-3 loss Sunday. The Pinstripes are 3-3 on their current road trip.

So, at 30-19, the Yankees are tied for first place in the AL East with Boston. 

The Mets, meanwhile, rallied late to beat Atlanta Sunday night 4-2, breaking a five-game losing streak. This puts them at 1-5 on their current home stand, during which they've scored a total of 16 runs.

So, at 18-29, the Mets sit in fourth place in the NL East, 11 games behind first-place Atlanta.

Last year the Yanks took the Subway Series from the Mets five games to one.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Niese (3-5, 4.80) is five-for-ten on quality starts this season, including two for his last two. Last time out he held the Reds to three runs, none of which were earned, through six innings, and just before that he limited the Cardinals to two runs through 7 1/3 innings. However, those two starts came on the heels of back-to-back bad outings in which Niese got nicked for 15 runs over 8 1/3 innings against the Braves and Pirates.

Also, for the season Niese has allowed more hits, 61, than innings pitched, 54 1/3, and his K/BB ratio stinks, at 31/27. The Mets are 4-6 in Niese's starts.

Last year Niese started twice against the Yankees and performed very well, allowing just two earned runs and 15 hits through 13 1/3 innings. The Mets split those two games.

Hughes (2-3, 5.51) is a respectable five-for-nine on quality starts this season, but he's also thrown in a few stinkers. Last time out Hughes held Baltimore to two runs, both on solo homers, through six innings, but in his two starts prior to that he'd gotten bombed for 13 runs in less than seven innings against the Royals and Mariners. But before that he'd rolled off four quality outings in a row.

On the season Hughes has allowed 58 hits, including 10 homers, in 47 1/3 innings, although his K/BB ratio is good, at 42/13. The Yanks are 4-5 in Hughes' starts.

Hughes started once last year against the Mets and got a win, giving up two runs (on two solo homers) through 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 Yankees victory at the Stadium in June.

In the match-up between the bullpens for this series Yankees relievers rank 11th in the Majors with a 3.19 ERA while the Mets pen ranks 28th with a 4.77 ERA.

Yanks-Mets Betting Trends

The OVER/UNDERS are 14-13 in games played at Citi Field this season, which have averaged exactly eight runs per.

The Yankees are 11-4 this season against left-handed starting pitchers, while the Mets at 10-18 vs. right-handers.

Our Take on Monday's Game

Even though Niese has a good track record against the Yankees, we still give Hughes a small edge in the pitching match-up. The Bombers also get the nod with the sticks and the bullpens. So we'll go with the Yankees for our free MLB pick for Monday.

[gameodds]3/228095/43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Pick: Take the Yanks at the -110.