Yankees vs. Mariners Game 3
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting, Seattle and rookie lefty Roenis Elias were favored by around -120 over New York and rookie righty Chase Whitley, with a total of seven runs.
New York got yet another quality outing from Masahiro Tanaka Wednesday, and Mark Teixeira hit a three-run homer for all the offense the Yanks would need in a 4-2 victory. Tanaka took a shutout into the bottom of the ninth, gave up a two-run homer to Robinson Cano, then struck out the last two batters to close out the complete-game W.
New York and Tanaka got steamed Wednesday, opening at -165 on the MLB betting line, then going off at -190. Fortunately for those steamers, the Yanks came through.
Also, to our delight, Wednesday's game stayed 'under' its total of 6.5 runs.
Elias (5-4, 3.64), by our strict standards, is only three-for-13 on quality starts this year, and one for his last six. But he's actually been a little better than those numbers might indicate. Two starts ago he threw a three-hit, complete game shutout against one of the best lineups in baseball, the Tigers; then last Saturday he gave up four runs in 7 2/3 innings against Tampa, although two of those runs came on a two-run homer in the eighth inning.
For the season Elias has allowed fewer hits, 69, than innings pitched, 81 2/3, walked 29 and struck out 70. Seattle is 7-6 in Elias' starts, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' by an 8-5 margin.
Elias started once earlier this season against the Yankees, holding them to two runs through seven innings, whiffing 10, in a 4-2 Mariners victory back on May 1.
Whitley (1-0, 2.42) is just one-for-five on quality starts since joining the Big Club a month ago, but that's mainly because he's been pitching on a very short leash. Last Friday, he held Kansas City to two runs through seven innings, his longest outing so far. Just before that he limited Minnesota to one run through five innings.
On the season Whitley has allowed 26 hits – zero homers – through 26 innings, walked just three batters while striking out 18. New York is 4-1 in Whitley's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' 3-2.
This will be Whitley's first start against Seattle.
Whitley earned a chance with the Yankees in part by going 15-9 with a 3.05 ERA over the last two-plus seasons at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Free Pick for Thursday
Elias was great against the Yankees six weeks ago, but some of that might have had to do with unfamiliarity. New York hitters might have a little better idea of how to deal with him tonight. So, we'll go with the Yankees to complete the sweep, at the +108 offered at 5Dimes, for Thursday's free MLB pick.
Yankees vs. Mariners Game 2
By: Ron Patrick
In the early betting New York and Masahiro Tanaka were chalked at around -165 over Seattle and Chris Young, with a total of 6.5 runs. The Yanks could also be gotten at around +105 on the run line.
New York scored twice in the top of the first Tuesday night against Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma, but Seattle scored once in the first, then tied it with a run in the bottom of the seventh. The game was then decided in the top of the eighth when Jacoby Ellsbury, who's almost been the Yankees' only threat with a bat recently, deposited an 0-2 pitch into right-center to score Derek Jeter with what eventually proved to be the winning run in a 3-2 New York victory.
The Yanks won as +130 underdogs on Tuesday's MLB betting board, and the game, which was 2-1 after the first inning, stayed 'under' its total of seven runs.
Our free pick on Tuesday's game was Seattle; we got what we needed out of Iwakuma – he left having allowed two runs through 7 1/3 innings - but the Mariners bats let us down, managing just one run against a guy (Vidal Nuno) with a 5.33 ERA.
Young (5-3, 3.42), the former Ranger-Padre-Met, is six-for-11 on quality starts this season, including two for his last three. He's coming off a rough outing in which he gave up three runs and seven hits, while walking five, in five innings against Tampa, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Angels and Tigers, two of the better lineups in baseball, to three runs through 12 1/3 innings.
On the year Young has only allowed 53 hits in 68 1/3 innings, but he's also walked 30, while striking out 33. He seems to like Safeco, though, allowing just seven ER in 33 1/3 home innings this season.
Seattle is 6-5 in Young's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 7-3 margin.
Young has already started once against the Yanks this season and picked up a win back on April 29, giving up one ER and three hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 Mariners win.
Tanaka (9-1, 2.02), in his first season in the Major Leagues, is already making a case as a Cy Young candidate. He's a near-perfect 11-for-12 on quality starts this year, and owns a run of three straight one-run outings. Last time out he held Oakland to one run through six innings, and over his last three starts he's given up three runs – two earned – in 20 2/3 innings.
For the season Tanaka has allowed just 68 hits in 84 2/3 innings, while compiling an excellent K/BB ratio of 92/13. New York is 10-2 in Tanaka's starts, with the totals splitting 6-6.
This will be Tanaka's first start against Seattle.
Free Pick for
Tanaka has been super so far, and he's liable to be very tough on a Seattle lineup that hasn't faced him before. But that price is a bit steep for our taste. So in expecting another low-scoring affair we'll go with the UNDER 6.5 runs, at the +111 offered at Pinnacle, for our free pick on Wednesday's game.
Yankees vs. Mariners Game 1
By: Ron Patrick
Yanks-M's Betting Lines
In the early betting Seattle and Hisashi Iwakuma were favored by around -140 over New York and Vidal Nuno, with a total of seven runs. The Mariners could also be found at around +155 giving the run and a half on the run line.
Also, Bovada was listing the M's at -130 to win this series, with the Yankees getting +100.
Seattle just took three of four games in Tampa over the weekend, winning Monday 3-0 to complete a 6-1 road trip. The Mariners have won three series in a row, and eight of their last nine games.
At 34-29 Seattle has sneaked into third place in the AL West, 4.5 games back of first-place Oakland.
New York just dropped two of three games at Kansas City over the weekend, losing Sunday 2-1, then getting rained out Monday. The Yankees have lost three series in a row, and six of their last eight games.
At 31-31 the Yanks are in third place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind first-place Toronto.
Seattle is 3-0 against New York this season, taking two games at Yankee Stadium at the end of April, then winning a make-up game last Monday.
For the season Kuma has allowed fewer hits, 43, than innings pitched, 50 2/3, walked just four and struck out 36. Seattle is 4-3 in Iwakuma's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 5-2 margin.
Iwakuma started once against the Yanks last year, throwing seven innings, giving up two runs on eight hits, in a 12-2 Mariners victory.
Lefty Nuno (1-2, 5.33) is just three-for-nine on quality starts, and 0 for his last two. Last time out he couldn't get through the fifth inning against Oakland, leaving after giving up a couple runs and with a couple runners on base. And just before that he gave up four runs in 6 2/3 innings against Minnesota.
On the season Nuno has allowed more hits, 58, than innings pitched, 52 1/3, walked 18 and struck out 42. New York is 4-5 in Nuno's starts, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' 5-4.
This will be Nuno's first-ever start against Seattle.
In the battle of the bullpens for this series the Mariners rank fifth with a 2.75 ERA while going 19/25 on save opportunities, while the Yankees rank 24th with a 4.20 ERA (smoke 'em if ya got 'em), while going 20/30 on save opps.
At the Bat
New York ranks 18th in team OBP at .315, while averaging 4.0 runs per game. But the Yankees have also been held to three runs or less in seven of their last 10 games.
Seattle ranks 29th with a .298 OBP, while averaging 4.2 RPG.
Games played at Safeco Field this season have leaned toward the 'unders' by a 14-12 margin.
New York has lost 10 of its last 14 series openers, while Seattle has won eight of its last 11 series openers.
The Yankees are 18-15 on the road this season, but 19-21 against right-handed starters.
Seattle is only 14-15 at home this year, but 17-9 against left-handed starters.
Seattle's Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders have both missed recent action with ailments, and their status for Tuesday is uncertain.
Meanwhile, New York's Jacoby Ellsbury is dealing with a sore hip, and his status for Tuesday is also uncertain.
Free Pick for Tuesday
Seattle is surging, and we've had good luck with Iwakuma in the past. So we'll go with the Mariners, at the -137 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on Tuesday's game.