MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Indians Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Monday, July 7, 2014 11:39 AM GMT

New York took 2-1 lead in this series with a 5-4 victory in extra innings Wednesday night, giving us a winner with our free MLB pick on the 'over'. This series comes to a conclusion with Game 4 Thursday evening (7:05 pm ET).

 

10th July
Yankees vs. Indians Game 4

By: Ron Patrick

 

Thursday's Betting Line
As of Thursday AM the best line we could find on Cleveland and rookie TJ House was the -117 offered at BetOnline, while New York and David Phelps could be found at +114 at Pinnacle. And the 'over/under' was listed at 8.5 runs.

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Wednesday Re-Hash
New York fell behind 3-0 in the first inning Wednesday night, rallied to take a 4-3 lead in the fifth, then eventually won the game 5-4 on a Jacoby Ellsbury solo homer in the 14th inning.

Brandon McCarthy gave up four runs, just one earned, through 6 2/3 innings in his first start for the Yankees, whose bullpen then threw seven innings of scoreless ball.

The Yanks won +120 underdogs on Wednesday's betting line, and the game, to our delight, played 'over' its total of 8.5 runs.

New York has played the last few games without Carlos Beltran, and Brett Gardner missed Wednesday's contest. Both are unlikely to play Thursday.


Thursday's Starters
House (1-2, 4.24) is 2/7 on quality starts this year. Most recently he gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings against Kansas City, and just before that he held Seattle to one run through six innings.

On the season House has allowed 50 hits in 40 innings, walked nine and struck out 25. Cleveland is 4-3 in House's starts, with the totals going 3-4.

This will be House's first-ever start against the Yankees.

Phelps (3-4, 4.01) is 4/12 on quality starts this season. Last time out he held Minnesota to one run and three hits through seven innings, and just before that he limited Tampa to two runs through 5 2/3 innings.

On the season Phelps has allowed 79 hits in 83 innings, walked 33 and struck out 71. New York is just 3-9 in games Phelps has started, although the totals have leaned toward the 'unders' by a 7-5 margin.

Phelps started twice against the Indians last year, allowed just one run and five hits through 12 2/3 innings; both those games played 'under'.


Free Pick for Thursday
Both starting pitchers have trended toward the 'unders' this season, and we can see that trend continuing tonight. So we'll go with the 'under' 8.5 runs, at the -119 offered at Pinnacle, for our free pick on this series finale.

 

9th July
Yankees vs. Indians Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Wednesday's Betting Odds
As of Wednesday AM Cleveland and Josh Tomlin were favored by around -115 over New York and Brandon McCarthy, with a total of 8.5 runs.


Tuesday Re-Hash
The Yanks led 3-1 through four and a half innings but the Indians scored once in the fifth, twice in the sixth and once in the seventh off Tanaka for a 5-3 victory. Cleveland won as a +145 home dog, and the game sneaked 'over' its total of 7.5 runs.

We liked New York with our free MLB pick on Tuesday's contest, backing the Yanks on the run line. So while we lost, we also saved ourselves $55.

New York OF Carlos Beltran missed his second straight game with a sore knee, and his status for Wednesday is still uncertain.


Wednesday's Whirlers
Tomlin (5-6, 4.11), by our strict standards, is 4/11 on quality starts this season, and just one for his last five. Last time out he got nicked for five runs in 5 2/3 innings against Kansas City, and over his last five starts, including a one-hit shutout against Seattle 12 days ago, Tomlin has still given up 18 runs in 29 2/3 innings.

For the season Tomlin has allowed 72 hits in 70 innings, walked just nine and struck out 64. Cleveland is 5-6 in Tomlin's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' by a 7-4 margin.

This will be Tomlin's first start against the Yanks since June of 2012.

McCarthy (3-10, 5.01) will be making is first start for the Yankees since coming over in that trade with Arizona last weekend. With the Diamondbacks McCarthy only went 6/18 on quality starts this year, but he is coming off a couple of good outings in which he held the Padres and Pirates to three runs through 12 2/3 innings.

On the season McCarthy has allowed 131 hits, including 15 homers, in 110 innings, although his K/BB ratio is pretty good, at 93/20. Arizona went just 4-14 in McCarthy's starts.

This will be McCarthy's first start against the Indians since April of 2012, when he was with Oakland.


Free Pick for Wednesday
We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we get the feeling there will be some runs scored. So we'll go with the 'over' 8.5 runs for our free pick on Wednesday's contest.

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8th July
Yankees vs. Indians Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Tuesday's Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best line we could find on New York and Masahiro Tanaka was the -138 offered at 5Dimes, while Cleveland and Trevor Bauer could be gotten at +135 at Will Hill.


Monday Re-Hash
The Yanks scored three runs in the second and two in the third, then got a quality outing from rookie Shane Greene on its way to a 5-3 victory. New York, to our delight, won as a post-time +135 dog on Monday's MLB betting line, and the game stayed 'under' its total of nine runs.

After getting clipped for five runs in two-plus innings Monday night Cleveland starter Justin Masterson has now allowed 13 runs and 20 hits in his last nine innings of work.

New York OF Carlos Beltran missed Monday's game with a sore knee, and his status for the rest of this series is uncertain.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Bauer (2-4, 4.42), by our tough standards, is just 3/10 on quality starts this season. Last time out he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Dodgers, and over his last three starts he's given up 10 runs through 18 1/3 innings.

For the season the former first-round draft pick has allowed 64 hits in 59 innings, walked 22 and struck out 54. Cleveland is 4-6 in Bauer's starts.

In his one career start against the Yankees, Bauer allowed two ER through 6 1/3 innings of a 7-0 Tribe loss in May of last season.

Tanaka (12-3, 2.37) is 15/17 on quality starts through his first half-season in the Major Leagues. Last time out he gave up four runs in seven innings against Minnesota, and we could almost call that his worst outing of the year. Prior to that he had allowed three or fewer ER every single time out.

On the season Tanaka has allowed 101 hits in 123 innings, while compiling a fantastic K/BB ratio of 130/18. New York is 13-4 in Tanaka's starts.

This will be Tanaka's first-ever start against Cleveland, and he's done awfully well against teams that haven't seen him before.


Free Pick for Tuesday
We like Tanaka's chances of a good performance, going against a lineup that hasn't faced him before. And we like to gamble. So we'll take the Yanks on the run line, getting +115 at 5Dimes, for our free pick on Tuesday's contest.

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7th July
Yankees vs. Indians Game 1

By: Ron Patrick

 

Monday's Betting Odds
As of Monday morning most books were holding off on lining Monday night's game, as they did some homework on New York rookie starter Shane Greene.

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Series Set-Up
Cleveland just took two of three games at home from Kansas City, winning Sunday 4-1. The Indians have won two series in a row, and four of their last five games. 

At 43-44 Cleveland sits in third place in the AL Central, six games behind first-place Detroit.

New York, meanwhile, just took three of four games at Minnesota over the weekend, winning Sunday 9-7. But the Yankees have won just one of their last five series, losing 10 of their last 15 games.

At 44-43 New York sits in third place in the AL East, 3.5 games behind first-place Toronto.

This is the first meeting this season between these teams; last year the Yanks took six of seven games from the Tribe.


Monday's Starters
Cleveland's Justin Masterson (4-5, 5.16) is 7/18 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last two, as he's dealt with a sore knee. Last Tuesday he gave up three runs in just three innings against the Dodgers, and just before that he gave up five runs in four innings against Arizona. 

For the season Masterson has allowed 100 hits in 96 innings, walked 53, which is way too many, and struck out 92. Cleveland is 10-8 in Masterson's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' 10-7.

Masterson started twice against the Yanks last year; in the first outing he threw a four-hit shutout in a 1-0 Indians win, but in the second he got bombed for seven runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-4 Tribe loss.

Greene, a 6-4 righty taken in the 15th round of the 2009 draft, will be making his first-ever ML start. He made a rocky ML debut back in April, walking three batters , all three of which scored, while getting one out, in an appearance against Boston, then was sent back down to the Minors. He gets another chance now, after the Yankees traded scheduled starter Vidal Nuno to Arizona over the weekend. 

Down at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this spring Green went 5-2 with a 4.61 ERA, allowing 79 hits in 66 innings.  

In the bullpen match-up for this series Cleveland ranks eighth in ERA at 3.20 while going 22/32 on save opportunities, while New York ranks 23rd in ERA at 3.81 while going 28/39 on save chances.


With the Sticks
New York ranks 18th in both team OBP at .315 and in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. 

Cleveland ranks 10th in OBP at .323 and seventh in scoring at 4.4 RPG.


Yanks-Indians Betting Trends
Cleveland is 25-16 at home this season.

New York is 26-20 on the road. 

The totals have leaned toward the 'overs' in games played at Progressive Field this season by a 24-17 margin.


Injury Update
Cleveland is without lead-off hitter Michael Bourn, who's on the DL with a bad hamstring.


Free Pick for Monday
We don't often go with pitchers making their first ML starts, but if we're looking for value on Monday's game we'd have to go with the Yankees for our free MLB pick.