MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Series Coverage

Darin Zank

Tuesday, September 17, 2013 1:24 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 17, 2013 1:24 PM GMT

We follow the three game series between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays, sharing our free MLB picks along the way. Who are the betting odds favorites for Thursday Night?

 

19 Sept
Thursday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

New York got this series to even and broke a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory Wednesday night. The Yanks trailed 3-0 heading into the eighth inning but put up a four-spot with help from the Toronto bullpen.

The Yankees won as -110 favorites on Wednesday's MLB betting board, and the game, to our chagrin, stayed UNDER its total of 8.5.

The teams combined to leave eight runners on base in scoring position.

So, the Yanks sit 2.5 games behind Texas in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot heading into Thursday's series rubber match (7:05 pm ET). 

Thursday's Betting Line

As of Thursday AM, most baseball sportsbooks were listing New York and Hiroki Kuroda at around -125 over Toronto and Todd Redmond, with a total of 8.5. The Yanks could also be gotten at around +125 on the run line.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Redmond (3-2, 4.10) is 3-for-11 on quality starts this season, just one for his last four. But he hasn't been too bad his last three times out. Most recently he held the Orioles to one run through 6 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's given up six ER through 17 innings.

For the season, which for Redmond began in late May and includes three appearances out of the bullpen, he's allowed 54 hits in 64 innings, but 10 of those hits have left the yard. However, he also owns a 66/19 K/BB ratio, which is pretty good.

Toronto is 5-6 in Redmond's starts this year. 

In his one start this season against New York Redmond gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-2 Jays victory back on Aug. 28.

Kuroda (11-11, 3.13) is 17-for-30 on quality starts, but just one for his last six. Last time out he gave up five runs in six innings vs. Boston, and over his last six outings he's allowed 26 ER through 35 innings.

On the season Kuroda has given up 178 hits in 190 innings, and owns a 138/37 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

New York is 16-14 in Kuroda's starts this year, but has lost four of his last six.

Kuroda has started four times already this season against Toronto; three of those starts went well, while one did not. On the whole Kuroda has thrown 26 1/3 innings against the Jays this year, allowing nine ER and 20 hits; the Yanks won three of those four games.

[gameodds]3/243762/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Thursday's Game

We'd give Kuroda the edge in the pitching match-up, because he's been so good over the last couple of seasons and because we've had some good luck with him. But he's not been sharp as of late. And Redmond actually pitched well recently. However, despite Kuroda's recent struggles we still have some faith in him, so we'll go with New York for our free pick for Thursday.

Pick: Take the Yanks at the -122 offered at Bet365.  

 

18 Sept
Wednesday's Game

By: Ron Patrick

 

Wednesday's Game Two 

Toronto took the opener of this series Tuesday night 2-0, as starter RA Dickey and two relievers shut down the Yanks on five hits. The Jays won as +105 home dogs on Tuesday's betting line, and the game stayed UNDER its total of eight.

New York, with four straight losses, is now 3.5 games off the pace in the fight for that second American League wild-card spot. 

So, the Yanks, with just 11 games left to play, will be in desperation mode for Game 2 of this series Wednesday night (7:05 pm ET). 

Wednesday's Betting Line 

Most MLB betting outlets opened Toronto and JA Happ at around -110 over New York and Phil Hughes, with a total of nine, and both those numbers had held steady in the early betting. 

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up 

Happ (4-6, 5.14) is just 2-for-15 on quality starts this year, and 1-for-8 since coming off the DL back in early August (after getting hit in the head with a line-drive). Last time out he gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Angels, and over his last five starts he's allowed 15 ER in 24 innings. 

For the season Happ has given up 74 hits in 73 innings, walked 38 and struck out 61. 

Toronto is just 5-10 in Happ's starts this year. 

In three starts this year against the Yankees Happ has allowed 12 ER and 18 hits in 16 innings; the Jays lost all three of those games. 

Hughes (4-13, 5.07) is just 10-for-27 on quality starts this season, one for his last 11, and even got demoted to the bullpen last week. But at the moment he must be New York's best option for this start.

Last time out he gave up a run in three innings against Baltimore, but in a relief appearance against Boston 12 days ago he got bombed for four runs in one-third of an inning.

Since July 28 Hughes has given up 27 ER in 32 1/3 innings, and seen his ERA climb from 4.33 to 5.07. 

On the season Hughes has allowed more hits, 159, including 23 homers, than innings pitched, 140, walked 41 and struck out 117.

New York is 11-16 in Hughes' starts this year.

In his two starts against Toronto this season Hughes has allowed five ER and 14 hits in 10 2/3 innings; the Yanks split those two games.

Somehow, perhaps because the totals on their starts have been so high, Hughes and Happ have combined to go 16-24 on the O/Us this year. 

Wednesday, SBR has some pretty great baseball picks of the day in store for you~

[gameodds]3/243668/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Our Take on Wednesday's Game 

We lost with the Yankees Tuesday, and would be tempted to back them again tonight, but can't quite pull the trigger with Hughes on the mound. On the other hand, Happ does nothing for us, either. So instead of going with a side for our free pick on Wednesday's game we'll hope Yankees bats wake up and go with the OVER. 

MLB Picks: Take the OVER nine runs at the +100 offered at William Hill

 

17 Sept
Tuesday's Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

New York got within a game of the second American League playoff spot last week, but it's lost ground since, and time is running out.

Can the Yankees, as they head into a three-game series in Toronto starting Tuesday night (7:05 pm ET), close the gap in the wild-card race? Or will the Jays put a couple of nails in New York's coffin.

Follow our Daily MLB Betting Odds Report for a full rundown of our picks. 

Tuesday's Betting Lines

As of Tuesday morning most MLB betting books were listing Toronto and RA Dickey at around -110 over New York and Andy Pettitte, with a total of eight.

But MLB odds at The Greek were chalking the Yankees at -125 to win this series, with the Blue Jays getting +105 as home dogs.

[gameodds]3/243548/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Yanks-Jays Series Set-Up

New York just got swept three games by the Red Sox in Boston over the weekend, losing Sunday 9-2.

So the Yanks, at 79-71, are out of the running in the AL East, but just 2.5 games behind Texas in the six-team scrum for the two AL wild-card slots.

Toronto, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Baltimore, and has lost five of its last six games.

So at 68-81 the Jays sit in last place in the AL East, 23 games behind the Red Sox, and playing out the string on an incredibly disappointing season.

New York leads this season series by a lopsided 13 games to three, with the totals going 7-8-1.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

RA Dickey (12-12, 4.36), by our strict standards, is 15-for-31 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Most recently he gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels, and just before that he allowed three runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Twins.

On the season last year's National League Cy Young Award winner has given up 192 hits, including 31 homers, in 202 innings, walked 67 and knuckled 155.

Toronto is 15-16 in Dickey's starts this year.

In three starts previously this season against the Yankees Dickey allowed eight ER and 16 hits in 21 1/3 innings; the Jays lost two of those three games.

Pettitte (10-9, 4.04) is 12-for-27 on quality starts this year, and four for his last six. Last time out he held the Orioles to three runs through 6 1/3 innings, and over his last six outings he's allowed nine ER through 38 innings.

On the season Pettitte has given up more hits, 185, than innings pitched, 163, walked 43 and struck out 112.

New York is 14-13 in Pettitte's starts this year.

In three starts this season against the Jays, Pettitte has held them to four ER and 15 hits through 20 1/3 innings; the Yankees won all three of those games.

In the bullpen match-up for this series Toronto ranks seventh with a 3.30 ERA and is 34-for-52 on save opportunities, while New York ranks 18th with a 3.65 ERA and has converted 47 of 60 save opps. 

Yanks-Jays With the Sticks

New York ranks 21st in home runs with 136, fifth in stolen bases with 112 and 15th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game.

Toronto ranks second in homers with 174, 10th in swipes with 103 and eighth in scoring at 4.4 RPG.

Yanks-Jays Betting Trends

Ne w York is 35-40 on the road this season.

Toronto is 36-39 at home this year.

The OVER/UNDERS are a dead-even 37-37 in games played at Rogers Centre this season.

The Yanks are eight games above .500 overall this season but only 50-50 against right-handers.

The Jays are 13 games under .500 but 18-20 vs. lefties.

Yanks-Jays Injury Update

New York, hobbled by injuries all season, has been playing for quite some time without Jeter and Teixeira, and now lead-off hitter Brett Gardner is out with an oblique strain. Also, A-Rod is questionable for Tuesday with a sore calf.

On the other side of the lineup card Toronto is without slugger Jose Bautista, who's on the DL with a bruised hip.

Our Take on Tuesday's Game

The Yanks have had the Jays' number this year, and they still have something to play for. So we'll go with New York for our free pick for Tuesday.

Pick: Take the Yankees at the +104 offered at Bet365.
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