David Price is proving worthy of the trade that brought him to Toronto & while it's tough to go against him, this capper believes the value on tonight's Jays-Yanks showdown is in the fade.
Blue Jays-Yankees Friday Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on Toronto and lefty David Price was the -153 at Heritage, while New York and rookie righty Luis Severino were getting +147 at 5Dimesat 5Dimes. The Blue Jays could also be found getting +107 on the run line at Pinnacle.
Game 1 of this series was rained out Thursday, so the teams will play a double-header Saturday.
New York just lost two of three games at home to Baltimore this week, falling Wednesday 5-3. Prior to that, though, the Yanks had won three series in a row.
Toronto, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games in Boston this week, losing Wednesday 10-4. For the Jays the defeat broke a five-series winning streak.
Big-picture, at 79-60 Toronto leads the AL East by a game and a half over 77-61 New York.
The Yankees also lead the AL wild-card race by 4.5 games over second-place Texas.
The Blue Jays lead the season series with New York eight games to four, with the totals skewing toward the UNDERS by a 9-3 margin, as Jays-Yanks games, somewhat puzzlingly, have trended low-scoring.
Friday's Mound Match-Up
Severino (3-2, 2.04), by our strict standards, is four-for-six on quality starts since becoming a Big Leaguer a month ago, and three for his last three. Last Friday he held Tampa to one run through 6 1/3 innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just two runs through 18 1/3 innings. For the season Severino has given up 28 hits through 35 innings, walked 14 and struck out 34.
New York is 3-3 in Severino's starts, with the UNDERS going 4-2.
In his one career start against Toronto, back on Aug. 16, Severino allowed three runs through six innings, with nine strikeouts, in a 3-1 Yankees loss.
Price (14-5, 2.43) is 20-for-28 on quality starts, a perfect seven-for-seven since joining the Jays in that trade with Detroit back in early August. Last Saturday he held Baltimore to one run and three hits through seven innings, and over his last seven starts he's allowed 12 earned runs through 50 1/3 innings (2.15 ERA). On the season Price has allowed 170 hits through 196 innings, walked 41 and struck out 196.
The Jays are 5-2 in Price's starts for them, with the UNDERS going 5-2.
Price has started three times already this season against New York; in the first outing, when he was still with the Tigers, he got bombed for eight runs in less than three innings; but in two starts with Toronto he's held the Yanks to three runs through 14 1/3 innings. The Jays split those two games, while both games played UNDER.
Friday's Batting Splits
Toronto leads the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .329 team on-base percentage, and ranks second with a .444 team slugging percentage.
New York, on the other hand, ranks fourth against left-handed pitching with both a .339 team OBP and a .436 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this season are 33-32 on the OVERS, averaging 9.1 runs per.
Jays-Yanks Free Picks
Price has the big name, but it often comes with an inflated price. We believe the value on tonight's line resides with the Pinstripes and our MLB pick Friday is on the bombers at home. Also, we rank both these bullpens in the top ten or so in baseball at the moment, and with their help this game should stay UNDER the total.
MLB Picks: Yankees +140 and UNDER 7.5 runs at Bet365