MLB Picks: World Series Futures Odds Update

Doug Upstone

Saturday, June 13, 2015 11:55 PM GMT

When addressing the betting odds from the sportsbooks for World Series futures, understand there are real contenders and pretenders that can give the appearance they can make it but will not.

Our mission here is to identify who belongs in which group. We will focus our attention on one primary area, because every solid baseball handicappers knows great pitching will stop great hitting. Time to break it down from here and look at the Bovada odds that can fit the needs of anyone making sports picks.

 

Penthouse Picks
The cream of the crop to win the World Series is the Los Angeles Dodgers at 7/1, along with St. Louis and Kansas City at 15/2. While these three might not offer much for MLB picks when seeking a larger payday, ultimately the idea is to make money.

If you look at team earned run averages, the Cardinals are first, the Dodgers fourth and the Royals fifth. Each of these teams do a great job by not beating themselves and are in the Top 7 in on-base percentage allowed. In today’s game having a terrific bullpen in tantamount and it just so happens Kansas City is first in ERA with its group of relievers, the Cards are second and do not be surprised if L.A. starts moving up from eight in the majors now that closer Kenley Jansen is back and other can take their rightful positions.

All three of these top level clubs are among the top four in run differential as of June 13th and should be strongly thought of a World Series champions.

 

Contenders With Value
The next group features five teams who offer value because of their longer odds yet have good clubs who could improve as the year progresses and could get hot in the postseason like the Giants and Royals did a year ago.

San Francisco is in this contingent at 12/1 MLB odds and deserves consideration because they have the best manager in baseball in Bruce Bochy and a proven crew of winners who have picked up the hardware three times in the past five years. Pitching wise the Giants are a little above average ranked 12th in ERA, but really need Matt Cain and Jake Peavy to be effective starting in July and keep Hunter Pence off the DL.

Washington actually has lower odds than the Giants at 8/1 with Detroit matching San Fran at 12/1. The Nationals were pegged to win it all back in March and were given the highest win total at 95. But with one injury after another and Washington hovering around .500, one has to wonder if this team will ever be completely healthy and live up to the preseason hype. The team’s lack of strength is supported by a 9-13 record in games determined by four or more runs. Maybe once everyone is back healthy and productive by August we see what the Nats were supposed to be. And maybe not also.

The Tigers might not be in the pretender category much longer with just ordinary pitching (15th in ERA) and an offense that is underachieving at 4.1 runs per game which is definitely not Miguel Cabrera’s fault.

The Yankees at 14/1 have the pretty solid offense which is averaging 4.6 RPG and might improve if Carlos Beltran and Chase Headley can do more. However, New York’s starting staff ranks just 17th in ERA and its bullpen is seventh in innings used which might necessitate a trade in the next 30 to 60 days if they remain atop the NL East.

Do not fall asleep on Pittsburgh at 18/1, with the second-best ERA in game, and if they can rev up the offense to lift from 4.1 to 4.3 or 4.4 range, this team could make a move and is 25-16 in contests decided by two or more runs.

 

Strictly Pretenders
The Cubs and Mets are 18/1 like Pittsburgh, but when you compare the rosters versus the Pirates, both are a pipe dream by comparison.

Houston, Toronto and the L.A. Angels are all at 20/1 and have problems. The Astros' starting pitching is beginning to crumble and likely the bullpen will sink with it from overuse. Plus, too much of a breeze in Houston games with all those strikeouts. Toronto can bludgeon opponents with its offense but can you take a team with the 27th rated ERA seriously? The team from Anaheim is similar to Detroit, without having David Price at the top of the rotation.