MLB Picks: With The Underdog At Home The Betting Value Lies On Rockies To Beat Dodgers Today

Jon Gray

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 2, 2016 1:20 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016 1:20 PM GMT

Both teams are in the hunt for the playoffs and in this matchup Los Angeles has been made the road favorite. Is there better value in backing the best home hitting team in baseball on the plus money line?

L.A. Dodgers vs. Colorado
With Colorado and Los Angeles both playing good baseball right now we should have a fantastic series when the Dodgers visit the Rockies for their three-game set. Odds makers have come out making Los Angeles around the -120 favorite at most places with Colorado around +115. For my MLB pick I'm going to back the value play here on the Rockies with MLB odds showing +116 at Bookmaker. I really think odds makers have set the wrong favorite in this matchup.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon McCarthy starts his sixth game of the year off of the DL and so far has a 2.39 ERA and 0.84 whip. He came back strong off of injury but had a little bit of a rough outing versus Tampa Bay in his last start allowing three earned runs off of four hits in four innings. What kind of surprises me in this matchup is that he is such a strong favorite considering his struggles in Colorado.  In his first start back this year along with the one start he had last year against the Rockies he pitched extremely well allowing zero earned runs in both contests, but make note both of those starts were in Los Angeles. 

Don't expect for him to pitch nearly as well in Coors field where in his last two starts he has allowed 10 earned runs off of 15 hits and four home runs in just 12 innings giving him a 7.50 ERA. It has been a while since he has had the opportunity to pitch their but I doubt he will fare very well. At the plate the Dodgers still remain one of the more statistically mediocre teams in major league baseball. They had a huge game the other day versus Arizona so they should come in with some momentum and I expect them to score. However, as far as value goes though this is a great spot to go against them.

 

Colorado Rockies
Jon Gray takes the mound for the Rockies with a respectable 3.94 ERA and 1.15 whip. The young right-hander has been really solid for Colorado and is 4-0 at home with a 4.22 ERA but more impressively batters are hitting just .235 against him in Coors field. He has not pitched particularly well against Los Angeles this season allowing eight earned runs over 11 innings in two starts, both games in Los Angeles.Perhaps oddly enough he will pitch better against them at home where although his numbers might not be better overall, for pitching in Coors field they are very good. 

Value wise there is no reason to think he cannot keep Los Angeles to a respectable number and allow Colorado's tremendous home offense to do the damage they normally do. The Rockies offensively are ridiculous at home where they are first or second in most offensive categories with a .894 OPS, .301 batting average, and averaging over six runs per game. Expect them to be able to score in bunches today and remind McCarthy why he does not like to pitch in Coors field.

 

Free MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies +116 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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