MLB Picks: With David Price On The Mound, Should You Fade Orioles? Not So Fast...

Baltimore Orioles

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, August 17, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

The L8 Boston Red Sox games which have seen Umpire Jim Wolf behind Home Plate has seen the Road team victorious and with Boston playing some good baseball and David Price on the mound, is fading the Orioles the thing to do here on Wednesday night? Let’s handicap all of the particulars and make a Side and Totals pick in what is a big game for both AL East contenders.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
The Boston Red Sox (65-52) and LHP David Price (10-8) face RHP Chris Tillman (15-4) and the host Baltimore Orioles (66-51) in Game 2 of this brief 2-game series on Wednesday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Offshore sportsbooks have opened up the visiting Red Sox as slight -115 favorites MLB pick (Heritage) with host Orioles tiny +105 underdogs with the Total (Runs) in the game at 9 (Under -118, Heritage). The Run Line MLB odds have Boston -1½ priced at +142 with Baltimore +1½ runs at a -158 (Heritage). In Game 1 on Tuesday night, the Red Sox started Eduardo Rodríguez (2-5) against Yovani Gallardo (4-14) with the Carmines slight -110 favorites over the Orioles (YouWager, 9½ Over -120).


Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox (13/1 to win World Series, GTBets) and Manager John Farrell have embarked in a crucial 10-game Road Trip, with these two games in Baltimore, four scheduled in Detroit and then four more in St. Pete against the Rays as the race for both the AL East crown (Red Sox 9/4 to win AL East, Ladbrokes) or maybe a Wild Card berth if needed with the Toronto Blue Jays (67-52) smack dab in the middle of that mix. In Game 2 on Tuesday, Boston Manager Farrell had a Starting Lineup of: 2B Dustin Pedroia, SS Xander Bogaerts, DH David Ortiz, RF Mookie Betts, 1B Hanley Ramirez, CF Jackie Bradley Jr., 3B Aaron Hill, C Sandy Leon with 22-year-old Rookie and University of Arkansas product LF Andrew Benintendi hitting in the No. 9 spot with Eduardo Rodríguez getting the pill for the Red Sox (643 RF-539 RA, +104 RD).


Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles (12/1 to win World Series, GTBets) and Manager Buck Showalter started play on Tuesday tied with the Blue Jays atop the AL East with the Red Sox 1 game back, so this should be a tremendous Divisional and Wild card race with the 4th-place New York Yankees (61-57) actually still in the mix also sitting 5½ games back. Against the Boston(27-25 on Road) on Tuesday, the Birds (2/1 to win AL East, Unibet) and Showalter has a starting Batting Order of: CF Adam Jones, 2B Jonathan Schoop, 3B Manny Machado, RF Mark Trumbo, DH Steve Pearce, 1B Chris Davis, C Matt Wieters, SS JJ Hardy and LF Nolan Reimold with RHP Starter Yovani Gallardo getting the baseball for the Birds, so, tons of Power and the best foot forward for Baltimore Manager Showalter in this game. 

Baltimore (549 RS-511 RA) has been one of the best Home teams in MLB this Regular Season and went in with a 39-17 (.697) mark at Home at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the best mark in all of MLB with the Chicago Cubs (42-19, .689) a close second. So for linemakers to give the slight edge to Boston here says much about the way the Red Sox are playing as well as the capabilities of their Offense, despite Baltimore having strong bats themselves.


Starting Pitchers Report Card and Relevant Pitchers Trends
Red Sox Starting LHP David Price (10-8, 4.29 ERA, 167 K’s, 1.28 WHIP) hasn’t exactly overwhelmed since coming to Beantown and the 6-6, 210-pound Vanderbilt product. Price, a native of Murfreesboro, Tennessee has struggled with Boston and has gone 2-3 his L8 starts, In his last outing, Price allowed 3 Runs in his last outing, an Interleague affair against the Arizona Diamondback and he has gone 7 IP in 5 of his L8. Against Price, Baltimore batters Hardy (.318), Jones (.286), Wieters (.333) and Pearce (.302) have fared pretty well while slugger Davis (.250) has been somewhat stifled, with just 1 RBI and no Home Runs in 24 ABs. 

Orioles Starting RHP Chris Tillman (15-4, 3.46 ERA, 126 K’s 1.21 WHIP) has really been a nice surprise for the orioles this season and is a big reason why this team has led the AL East most of the MLB Regular Season. Tillman gave up 2 Runs and didn’t walk anyone in his last start and has been extremely impressive against the Red Sox throughout his career, going 10-3 with a sweet 2.74 ERA in 19 Starts. Red Sox Brock Holt (.545) and Bradley, Jr. (.306) have fared well while the 8th-year southpaw has done well against Ortiz (.194, HR), Pedroia (.279) an Betts (.188).

Some Pitcher’s Trends for this one: Boston is 0-5 in Price’s L5 Road starts, 1-4 his L% starts vs. the AL East, 0-4 his L4 Game 2 Starts, 1-5 his L6 Starts on Grass and the Red Sox are only 2-5 in Price’s L7 Starts against a team with a Winning Record. The Under is 6-0 in the L6 Price Starts against the AL East, 6-2-1 his L9 Starts vs. a team with a Winning Record and the Under is both 4-1 in Price’s L5 Starts overall as well as his L5 on Grass (Oriole Park at Camden Yards). And a nice little Tillman Trend: The Under is 21-10-1 in Tillman’s L32 Home Starts.


Baltimore Weather Forecast, Side, Total, Team, Series and Umpire Trends
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon), The Weather Channel Forecast had a Severe Weather warning for Baltimore but the game had started and was being played (0-0 B2). And On Wednesday night, TWC is currently calling for Thunderstorms likely in the evening with a chance of storms later also, a Low around 75° with 980% Humidity and W Winds of around 4 mph. So the start of this could be delayed, there could be delays during this game or maybe it will even be Rained Out. 

Or maybe it will be wonderful in Crab City...though the words look ominous. Some Trends from the good folks over at The Red Sox (+550 to win AL Pennant, GTBets) were 4-0 in their L4 overall heading into Tuesday’s Game 1, 4-0 their L4 on Grass, 5-11 their L7 Roadies against a RHP Starter and the Carmines are 2-5 their L7 Wednesday games. Baltimore is 6-0 the L6 against a LHP Starter, 23-6 the L29 at Home against teams with a Winning Record and 44-17 in its L51 Home games overall. Baltimore is also 37-16 the L53 at Home against a Winning team but just 2-6 its L8 against the AL East, 2-5 the L7 Game 2’s of a series and 2-5 the L7 Wednesdays. So? So both these teams have both blown lately on Wednesdays and Games 2’s. Pardon the French.

And some Totals Trends: The Under is 4-0 the L4 Orioles games against a team with a Winning Record, the Under is 4-0 the L4 Orioles Wednesday games, the Under is 14-3 the L17 Orioles Home games and the under is also a powerful 21-5 the L26 Baltimore games on Grass and 25-7 the L32 Orioles games overall (78.1%). The Under is alo 13-6 the L19 Red Sox games on Grass and 13-3 the L15 Boston Road games. The Over is overwhelmed here, and that’s not counting Mother Nature’s potential part in the proceedings in Crab City.

And some relevant Series Trends: Baltimore is 7-1 its L8 Home Starts with Tillman vs. Boston, 13-3 the L16 with him going against the Red Sox and the Home team is 4-1 the L5 times Umpire Jim Wolf has been behind Home Plate on Wednesday with Baltimore involved. And even though Boston is 8-3 the L11 games with Wolf calling Balls and Strikes, and the Road Team has been an unbeaten 8-0 when Wolf is the Home Plate Umpire on Wednesdays, the Red Sox are just 3-9 their L12 games in Baltimore and the Orioles have the best Home Record in MLB and have a Starting Pitcher in the 28-year-old Anaheim native Tillman who has completely owned them.


FREE MLB PICKS: Orioles +114 at Bookmaker, Under 9 -118 at Heritage

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